The Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), known as the “GDP preview”, recorded a rise of 1.17% in July, confirming a favorable scenario for Brazilian activity and surprising the market, which had expected an increase of 0. 30%.
To CNN Brasil Business economists said that the result released this Thursday (15) reinforces the solid start of domestic activity in the second half of the year and goes against the expectation of a slowdown in the pace of economic growth.
“The number reflects a strong increase in services, which benefited from the increase in cargo transport and accommodation and food, as well as the increase in the production of food and petroleum products within the industry”, pointed out Banco Original.
“The market expected a weaker number that would indicate a path of deceleration in the pace of growth, mainly due to the negative surprise with the Monthly Survey of Commerce that was released yesterday (14/09), showing a 0.8% drop in sales in July compared to the previous month”, highlighted Laura Moraes, economist at Neo Investimentos.
Rodolfo Margato, an economist at XP, said he believed that a marked improvement in monthly agricultural production and strong net results from the external sector may have made a relevant contribution.
“In short, the numbers from the IBC-Br corroborate the view that domestic activity started the second half of the year at a very solid pace of growth”, he declared.
Also on Thursday, the federal government’s economic team raised the official forecast for the performance of economic activity this year from 2% to 2.7%, according to data from the Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE) of the Ministry of Economy.
XP stated that it maintains the expectation that Brazil’s GDP will grow 2.8% in 2022 and 1.0% in 2023. André Perfeito, chief economist at Necton, said he will not revise the projection on 2022 activity. , which should still be impacted by the increase in Auxílio Brasil, despite the positive result of the IBC-Br.
“The result was surprising, it came much higher in terms of services, even with the disappointment of PMC. It’s a good number, but it won’t make us review GDP, keeping growth this year at 2.5%,” said the economist.
“We have to wait for the result of August, when the aid will start to be felt, which should create space for improvements later on”, he added.
Source: CNN Brasil
Joe Jameson, a technology journalist with over 2 years of experience, writes for top online news websites. Specializing in the field of technology, Joe provides insights into the latest advancements in the industry. Currently, he contributes to covering the world stock market.
