G7 leaders face multiple crises, and Putin will be keeping an eye on their flaws

Enormous challenges, some of them not even imaginable when the leaders of the G7 gathered 12 months ago, are punishing the world’s most prosperous democratic nations as they prepare to meet in Germany this Sunday (26).

Optimism was in the air at the beach resort of Carbis Bay in Cornwall, England, in 2021 as the G7 presidents, prime ministers and chancellor met face-to-face for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic . Together, the leaders pledged to “beat Covid-19 and rebuild”, “invigorate economies”, “protect our planet” and “strengthen partnerships”.

However, since then, world events have surpassed his best efforts. It is not clear, quite the contrary, whether they will be able to achieve these goals this year. The unjustified invasion of Ukraine for the Russia it is a large and singular cloud, but other thunders also sound on the horizon.

In the coming days, the leaders of Japan, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, the European Union and Germany – the host of the summit – will meet in the midst of the seclusion of the luxurious Schloss Elmau in Bavaria.

Situated in a peaceful valley, the spa resort often offers wealthy guests a brief chance to escape the cares of the world. But not even Schloss Elmau can protect global leaders from the problems looming on the horizon.

Officials linked to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin , are suggesting nuclear armageddon. THE China is increasingly pulling its sleeves out, a global food crisis is on its way, oil prices are continuing to rise, and a global economic slowdown and cost-of-living crisis are brewing.

Climate change aspirations are also mounting, as are supply chain problems, which are dashing hopes for a post-pandemic return to normalcy.

As if all that wasn’t enough, the host of last year’s summit, the UK threatens to break international law over its Brexit deal with the European Union (not to mention its controversial plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda), even at the risk of shaking the world order it helped build, diluting the already limited effectiveness of the G7.

While G7 leaders may look back with some pride because of the unity shown in Russia’s unprecedented aggression (as seen in the “strengthen partnerships” target agreed in Cornwall), the scale of impending crises manages to undermine even that side. optimistic.

Putin is not entirely to blame for the coming storm, but his unwarranted war in Ukraine is inextricably linked to many of the emerging crises. Without the war, the necessary corrections would be easier and fewer, and their impacts less pernicious.

food crisis

The global food crisis is an example. It can be blamed, in part, on post-pandemic global supply chain issues, but Russia’s theft of Ukrainian wheat and the blockade of Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea, which is preventing Ukraine’s wheat and other agricultural products from reach international markets, also play an important role.

According to the World Food Program (WFP) of UN , Ukraine normally accounts for 40% of the wheat supply. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) says that Ukraine supplies 16% of world corn exports and more than 40% of sunflower oil.

The global NGO International Rescue Committee (IRC) recently said that “98% of Ukraine’s wheat and other grain exports remain under lockdown,” adding that “food prices worldwide have soared by 41% and more are projected to 47 million people will experience acute hunger this year.”

Traditionally, Ukraine’s wheat and grain exports go to some of the world’s most needy nations: Libya, Lebanon, Yemen, Somalia, Kenya, Eritrea and Ethiopia.

To improve the situation, the G7 will have to get Putin to back off on some of his war objectives, which would be, for example, ending the conflict or restoring the Ukrainian government’s control in the region of Donbass – but so far there is no indication that he is close to fulfilling such requests.

Energy Crisis Rising oil prices are another by-product of Putin’s war – although it has been compounded by the fact that oil production has not matched post-pandemic consumption increases.

To resolve this point, the G7 will have to convince Russia’s partners in OPEC including Saudi Arabia, to turn against Putin and increase oil production.

The trip of the President of the United States Joe Biden Jeddah, scheduled for mid-July, and the trip made in March by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to Riyadh, both destinations in Saudi Arabia, suggest that the G7 could make progress in this regard, but there are still no guarantees.

Saudi Arabia, like Russia, benefits enormously from high oil prices; its earnings are problematic for the billions stuck in this bill of taking food to markets.

Last year, the G7 only talked about net zero emissions and a green recovery after the pandemic. But this year’s struggle by Western nations to wean ourselves off Russian oil and gas has valued the single biggest contributor to the climate crisis: coal.

G7 host Germany is now in crisis mode as Russia has cut back on gas supplies to the country, using energy as a weapon to gain influence, as feared. Now Germany says it will activate more coal-fired plants.

This is a throwback to last November, when Germany presented its deadline for phasing out coal to 2030, eight years ahead of schedule. After the invasion of Russia, the country also accelerated plans to transition its energy sector to 100% renewable energy in five years.

the british prime minister Boris Johnson – who said last year that the world had reached a point of no return on phasing out coal – this week suggested the UK start mining fossil fuel again for the steel sector.

The country will also delay a plan to close more coal-fired power plants before next winter. Finally, to resolve the oil crisis, Biden is suggesting fiscal holidays on fuel, whose prices are only going up.

economic pressures

In their agreed objective in Cornwall to “build back better”, the G7 nations were never able to return to pre-Covid conditions of normality. Canceled flights and chaos in the travel industry across the Europe going beyond summer, are just the visible tip of an iceberg-size problem that defies quick fixes.

China’s insistence on continuing to apply a “zero Covid” strategy is not only hampering a return to the economy as usual, but also causing ripples in global supply chains, with lockdowns preventing factory work and, in the worst cases, stopping production.

Despite growing tensions with the G7 nations, China shows no signs of aligning with the new post-Covid norms.

In the G7 countries and beyond, inflation is rising, central banks are raising lending rates and a global economic slowdown looks much more likely this year than in the past. The richest man in the world, Elon Musk predicts that a recession in the United States is “inevitable”.

The problems overlap in a way that is somewhat reminiscent of the global economic recession of 2008.

At the time, central banks banded together and stopped the economic damage, but the geopolitical repercussions mounted in the following years.

The Arab Spring signaled that the economic pain had crossed a threshold. When poor Tunisian street trader Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in December 2010, he ignited movements in the Middle East .

Protesters took to the streets, toppling two governments and shocking many more, before calm was partially restored to the region at the end of the following year.

It is not impossible that another global economic crisis could trigger an even wider wave of unrest. In recent months, Sri Lanka has seen a movement generated by economic turmoil get to the streets. Rising prices also sparked popular unrest in Pakistan and Peru.

Putin bets on lack of consensus

What G7 leaders can do to get out of a time of despair could well be limited by the global flaws Russia has been intentionally exploiting.

Just weeks before Putin’s forces invaded Ukraine, Putin went to China and met with the president. Xi Jinping . The two promised deeper cooperation, and despite warnings from G7 nations and others, Xi doubled down on that commitment and became even more assertive about Taiwan’s future.

The consensus at the UN and the G20 , two other pocket and global crisis firefighters, is in tatters. The United Nations Security Council votes show that Russia and China use veto power to prevent any censorship of Putin’s invasion.

For its part, the United States has suggested that it will not attend the G20 leaders’ summit in Indonesia in November if Russia attends. The UK did the same. China refused to denounce Russia for the invasion of Ukraine and both adopted a bellicose speech towards the interests of the main democracies of the world (the G7 nations) against them.

China and Russia know that developing country problems affect G7 nations before them – as most migrants choose to go to developed countries that will protect their rights – and they seem willing to leverage the world’s crises to their advantage, leaving the G7 alone to face the next storm.

But so far, despite differing relations with Russia, the G7 has stuck together.

Emmanuel Macron , from France, spoke more to Putin than any other G7 leader during the year. He insists Russia “should not be humiliated”, while Biden accuses Russia of having “fueled a global energy crisis” by invading Ukraine and his defense chief Lloyd Austin says Putin should “be weakened”.

What is clear is that this G7 has more stakes than previous summits: success will come from mitigating crises, not ending them. Failure is exactly what Putin wants.