First half has an average of 6 million companies in default, says Serasa

Data on the Default Indicator of Serasa Experian Companies, obtained exclusively by CNN show that, in the first half of 2022, the average number of companies that had negative accounts in the country was six million.

Compared to 2021, there was a growth of 3.45%.

According to the economist at Serasa Experian, Luiz Rabi, the increase was due to the high inflation in the period.

The survey shows that the number of delinquent businesses grew in the first semesters between 2016, the beginning of the historical series, and 2020.

In these five years, the number of companies with negative accounts increased from 2.83 million to 6.1 million. In 2021, there was a drop to 5.8 million.

According to the survey, most debts in 2022 were incurred by entrepreneurs in the Services sector (27.4%).

São Paulo leads the ranking among the states with the most defaulting companies (2,008,526), ​​followed by Minas Gerais (608,663) and Rio de Janeiro (543,961).

The economist at Serasa Experian, Luiz Rabi, explains that the increase in delinquency in business was caused by high inflation, which caused the number of delinquent consumers to increase and, consequently, directly affected the cash flow of companies.

“The root of the problem is inflation. Since September last year, the index has gone into the double digits. This persistently higher inflation ends up wreaking havoc on consumers’ pockets and they become delinquent, which reflects on the performance of companies”, he highlights.

“The money doesn’t come in, the cash doesn’t increase and they are in financial difficulties because there was a drop in the flow of payments. In other words, it hits the consumer first and hits the companies first, it’s a chain. The entire system is in default.”

The survey also indicates that, in the first half of the years between 2016 and 2020, there was an increase in the number of companies with debt.

In the first six months of 2016, it was 30.7 million. This number grew until 2020 and reached 63 million. As of 2021, the debt of companies in the first half began to decrease and went to 46 million. In 2022, there were 43 million.

However, although the number of debts has decreased, their value has increased, reaching an average of R$105 billion in the first half of last year, with an average of around R$99 billion in the first half of this year.

“The number of delinquent companies should decrease only when inflation falls consistently, and not punctually. When the IPCA is at a lower level and the economy is in a decelerated process, the scenario may be more positive”, says the economist at Serasa Experian.

“But it doesn’t just depend on these factors, we also need lower interest rates, as they are one of the main factors that make values ​​more expensive for companies. There is a triple convergence: interest rates and inflation must fall and the economy must grow. When inflation improves, it will stop eroding the purchasing power of consumers.”

Check the historical series of defaulting companies, based on the first half of each year:

• 2016: 2.83 million
• 2017: 4.8 million
• 2018: 5.2 million
• 2019: 5.7 million
• 2020: 6.1 million
• 2021: 5.8 million
• 2022 : 6 million

* Under supervision of Helena Vieira