By Anastasia Vamvaka
With the Capesize freight market (the largest dry cargo ship with an average size of 156,000 tonnes) sinking to the bottom in recent months, the first signs of recovery are finally being seen despite worrying messages from the global economy.
The Baltic index of bulk cargo (BDIY) increased by 276 points compared to two weeks ago, while the overall index, which affects the rates for capesize, panamax and supramax ships, BDRYFF, increased by 206 points, marking an increase 2.7% compared to a month ago according to Novisea.
The small number of empty ships sailing from the Pacific to the Atlantic in search of work combined with the highest export activity of iron ore from Brazil, provided the necessary fuel for Capesize shipowners who from year to date have experienced low short-term prices.
Combining it with a very resilient sub-Cape market, where Panamax / Supramax / Handymax prices remain at historically high levels, analysts say it is a pleasant surprise that the bulk dry market balance remains quite promising, especially considering Chinese imports of bulk dry commodities have fallen sharply on an annual basis.
After April and the classic iron ore market from Brazil giving the first impetus, June is also positive with Australian miners tending to push hard on the water, with analysts estimating that the balance will continue to tilt in favor. of the highest Capesize prices.
The concerns
With the global economy plunged into uncharted waters as economic growth slows and the IMF recently cut its forecast for global GDP growth to just 3.6%, China – a key donor to product transportation – now has almost half of what it had just a decade ago and at the lowest level in decades, with transport volumes likely to remain sluggish in such an environment.
From the US to Europe, economic growth is slowing, central banks are set to further strengthen monetary policies to fight inflation, and China is also in a difficult situation where demand for bulk goods is under pressure for a number of reasons, from a lockdown related to Covid up to energy security policies and cuts related to steel estimate shipping brokers observe developments, with the bulk cargo market always surprising.
Source: Capital
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