Dangerous, record-setting heat waves are set to increase as the climate crisis intensifies, and will be particularly devastating in countries and regions least prepared for them, according to a new study.
Scientists analyzed temperature datasets spanning more than 60 years, as well as climate models, to calculate how likely unprecedented heat extremes are to occur — and where they might happen.
They identified Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea and Central America – including Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua – as “hot spots” for high-risk heatwaves.
These regions are particularly vulnerable due to rapid population growth and limited access to health care and energy supplies, which undermine their resilience to extreme temperatures, according to the report published on Tuesday (25) in the journal Nature Communications.
“There is evidence that these regions could face a major heat wave and would not be prepared for it,” said Dann Mitchell, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Bristol, UK, and co-author of the study.
The threat facing Afghanistan is particularly strong, Mitchell told the CNN . Not only is there a high potential for record extreme heat, but the impacts will be intensified by the enormous difficulties the country is already facing, he said.
Afghanistan is struggling with dire social and economic problems. It also has a growing population that is increasingly exposed to the problems of limited resources, according to the report.
“When a really extreme heat wave finally hits, instantly a lot of problems arise,” Mitchell said.
Heat waves have a broad negative impact. They reduce air quality, worsen drought, increase the risk of wildfires and can lead to infrastructure deformation.
They also greatly affect human health, and extreme heat is one of the deadliest natural disasters. Heat stroke or heat exhaustion can trigger a wide range of dangerous symptoms, including headaches, dizziness, nausea, and loss of consciousness, among others.
Heat stroke is the most serious heat-related illness, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, causing the body’s temperature to skyrocket in a matter of minutes and can lead to permanent disability or death.
Several regions have already recorded unprecedented temperatures this year. In March, parts of Argentina faced temperatures up to 10 degrees Celsius above normal, while high temperature records were broken in large parts of Asia in April.
“Heat waves and other extreme weather events will only become more intense as the world continues to burn fossil fuels,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London, who was not involved in the study. .
Nowhere is safe, noted the report, which found that “statistically implausible” heat waves — those that fell well outside the historical norm — occurred between 1959 and 2021 in about 30% of the regions assessed.
This includes the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave, where high temperature records were not only broken, but completely destroyed, killing hundreds of people.
In Lytton, British Columbia, temperatures peaked at just under 50 degrees Celsius in June 2021, breaking the previous record by nearly 5 degrees. The village was almost completely destroyed by fire a few days later.
Scientists have determined that the event would have been nearly impossible without climate change.
Parts of China, including Beijing, and European countries such as Germany and Belgium also face high risk, according to the report.
Millions of people living in these densely populated regions could be severely affected by heat waves, even if these countries have more resources to mitigate some of the worst impacts.
The report urges governments around the world to prepare for heat events that go far beyond current record temperatures, such as setting up cooling centers and reducing hours for those working outdoors.
There are many policies governments can put in place to save lives, Otto said, including “preparing heatwave management plans, ensuring and testing their implementation, informing the public about impending heatwaves, and protecting people vulnerable to their impacts.”
Unprecedented heat events are becoming more likely as the world continues to burn fossil fuels, said Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, a researcher at Harvard University, whose 2022 research found that dangerous levels of high temperatures are expected to at least triple worldwide. world by the end of the century.
“By definition, we don’t know what could happen if large populations were exposed to unprecedented heat and humidity stress,” Vargas Zeppetello told the CNN “but heat waves in recent decades have already been extremely deadly and there are serious reasons for concern in the future”.
Source: CNN Brasil
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