The Brazilian Economy Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br) dropped 4.9 points from August to September, to 111.7 points, informed the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV).
With the fall, the indicator reached the lowest level in August since November 2019, when it stood at 105.1 points. According to FGV, this is the first time that the IIE-Br has been close to a “comfortable level”, below 110 points, since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The result is motivated by the improvement in the scenario for economic activity and the job market, in addition to the reduction in inflationary pressure in recent months. The electoral framework seems to exert little influence on the indicator so far and the convergence of the IIE-Br to levels below 110 points will depend on the prospects for the continuity of the current phase of growth and for the post-election political scenario. this Friday, 30th, by FGV.
The IIE-Br is made up of two components, which followed the same downward trend in September.
The first is the IIE-Br Expectation, constructed from the dispersion of forecasts for the exchange rate and for the IPCA, which dropped 3.8 points in September, to 111.6 points.
As a result, the component contributed negatively with 1.0 point to the aggregate variation of the IIE-Br in September.
The other component, the IIE-Br Mídia, maps the frequency of news with mention of uncertainty in the main newspapers.
The component dropped 4.5 points in September compared to August, to 110.6 points, contributing 3.9 points to the aggregate drop in the indicator.
Source: CNN Brasil
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