Fed Chair Powell likely to be more cautious than usual – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts share a brief preview of this week's key macroeconomic developments in the United States.

Waiting for Payrolls to lose momentum

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will grab the headlines this week amid a very tight data schedule for the US. Fed Chair Powell is likely to be more cautious than usual, with a hawkish bias, when it comes to the outlook for monetary policy: “Higher for longer.” We also expect the Fed to announce a preliminary plan to reduce QT starting in June.

We also expect payrolls to lose momentum at the start of the second quarter after the strong first quarter result, while ICE growth is likely to pick up modestly. The QRA, the March JOLTS report and the April ISM surveys will also gain attention this week.