EUROZONA: Rate reversal is a relief, but it does not change the rules of the game – abn amro

The high uncertainty continues to impact the economic recovery of the eurozone. The recovery is detained by short -term tariffs; Fiscal policy raises growth prospects in 2026. Disinflationary forces mean that the ECB will probably cut rates even more to 1.5% for September, says ABN Economists Amro Jan-Paul Van de Kerke and Bill Diviney.

The tariff uncertainty clouds the prospects of the eurozone

“The day of liberation was supposed to provide clarity about the future tariff policy of the US and, therefore, a more true economic impact for the Eurozone. The day of liberation, and a week later the” day of reversal “, have – if perhaps – brought to more uncertainty in politics. This culminated in a 90 -day pause for reciprocal tariffs. 10% remains, as well as 25% separated tariffs on steel and aluminum and cars and car parts. “

“Inflation in March dropped slightly, with the general index descending to 2.2% from 2.3% in February, and underlying inflation falling to 2.4% from 2.6%. High inflation in services has been the focal point of the BCE. Recently, the perspectives in that front are significantly improving. The main engine is the fall in salary growth, with, for example, the tracker of indeed moving to a new minimum moving to a new minimum moving to a new minimum. Post-pondemic of 2.7% in the first quarter. “

“The ECB cut the deposit rate at 25 bp to 2.25%, as expected widely. The tone at the press conference was moderate, reflecting the impact of tariffs on the growth prospects. More importantly, the April cut revealed a more moderate reaction function before the tariffs; before, some members of the Governing Council still favored a pause.”

Source: Fx Street

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