Around 373 million Europeans will be able to go to the polls and elect 720 members of the next European Parliament in the election that begins this Thursday (6) and runs until Sunday (9).
Once the votes of the 27-nation bloc are counted, the results are expected to show a significant shift to the right, which could have important implications for the political direction of the European Union.
From the war in Ukraine to tackling mass migration, from the rise of China to the threat of climate change, it is difficult to see how a bloc of diverse countries could speak with one voice.
But EU policy has always been based on alliances between countries and political ideologies representing very different constituencies.
However, the bloc’s political center has shifted to the right in the last two decades.
Most legislators in the European parliament (known as MEPs) belong to a political party in their own country. As soon as they enter the European Parliament in the Belgian capital, Brussels, they join loose multinational political groups that, in general, have similar political interests.
These groupings then form coalitions, which usually results in a majority grouping of center-left, center-right and liberal centrists.
The shift from the political center to the right in this coalition has been gradual. In 1994, the main socialist group, S&D, had the largest number of MEPs. In 1999, it was overtaken by the center-right European People’s Party (EPP).
The EPP, best explained as conservative in the mold of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, has been the dominant force in EU politics ever since.
Although the party has managed to lead a dominant centrist coalition with the left and liberals at European level, MEPs are still having difficulty reconciling the EU’s inter-party politics with the internal politics taking place in their own countries.
Although the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) groups are expected to finish fourth and fifth respectively in terms of number of seats, their combined total, which could be higher at 140, it will be difficult for the PPE to ignore, according to the Politico Poll of Polls.
The current estimate is that the PPE will win 165 seats against 143 for the socialist S&D.
The ECR and ID are European Parliament parties with a very broad group of conservatives.
The ECR, for example, was founded by former British Prime Minister David Cameron, who campaigned against Brexit. Its current president is Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who attracted a lot of attention during the 2022 Italian elections for her opposition to LGBTQ+ rights, promises to curb migration, and general anti-globalist rhetoric.
However, since Meloni’s election, politics has been considered considerably more moderate and has supported many important EU initiatives, including support for Ukraine. She also resisted allowing Hungarian authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán to join the ECR after he left the EPP.
The ID also sought to moderate its image. It recently expelled the far-right German party AfD from its ranks after one of its most senior deputies told an Italian newspaper that he did not view all members of the SS, the notorious Nazi paramilitary group, as automatically criminals.
There is a wide range of opinions, from the moderate wing of the ERC to the fringes of the ID, but political currents and the desire for influence can make for some unusual bedfellows, especially in the opaque and fluid world of European politics.
It is unlikely that the PPE will be willing to work directly with the ID in the near future, but that does not mean they will not be important.
Migration, climate change, border security, military spending, the rule of law – these have all been flashpoints in pan-European politics for a long time and are not going away anytime soon. And ultimately, it is the newly elected Parliament that examines and approves the composition of the European Commission – the EU’s executive body.
It is important to note that support for Ukraine is expected to be safe for now, with pro-Kremlin groups appearing very isolated. But almost everything else will be handled on a case-by-case basis if the numbers work out that way. And the more elected MEPs are to the right of the EPP, the more its influence could grow over time.
Five years is a long time in politics, and that is how long this Parliament will last.
During this period, France will hold an election that Marine Le Pen, who is affiliated with the ID, could win with her National Rally party.
Geert Wilders, also ID, is expected to soon form a government in the Netherlands after emerging as the largest party in the November elections.
In other words, domestic politics in the Member States could shift even further to the right, which naturally alters the calculations in Brussels.
The European Parliament can often feel like a bureaucratic bubble. But the EU is an increasingly geopolitical actor – capable of imposing sanctions on Russian and Chinese political figures, providing funds to Ukraine and using its economic heft as the world’s biggest trading bloc in diplomacy.
If its political center is indeed shifting to the right, its influence will inevitably have significant and perhaps far-reaching consequences for people living beyond Europe’s borders.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
