EUR/USD Price Analysis: Consolidates around 1.0765-1.0770 at 100-day SMA ahead of US CPI.

  • EUR/USD remains within a tight range for the second day in a row.
  • The technical situation justifies some caution before opening new directional positions.
  • Investors look to US CPI data for fresh impetus, amid the market’s assessment of a dovish Fed and ECB.

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate its sideways trend for the second consecutive day and remains at a safe distance from the lows around 1.0725-1.0720 that it reached last week. The pair is moving around the 1.0765-1.0770 area, virtually unchanged on the day, as traders eagerly await the release of US consumer inflation figures to gain fresh impetus.

Ahead of key data, lowering expectations for a first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March 2024 acts as a tailwind for the US dollar (USD). Elsewhere, the common currency is hurt by speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) could start cutting interest rates early next year, amid a further decline in euro zone inflation. than expected last month. This, in turn, is preventing traders from opening aggressive directional positions around the EUR/USD pair and is resulting in limited price action in a moderate range.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD on Friday showed resistance below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October-November rally and has so far managed to defend the 100-day SMA on a base of daily closing. This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained breakout and acceptance below the 1.0725 region before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from a multi-month high touched in November. The EUR/USD pair could then weaken below the 1.0700 level and test the 61.8% Fiboancci, around the 1.0670-1.0665 zone.

On the other hand, the round level of 1.0800, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci, now appears to act as an immediate strong barrier ahead of the 200-day SMA, around the 1.0825 region. NFurther up, EUR/USD could approach the 1.0900 level again. The momentum could extend further towards the next relevant hurdle near the 1.0940 horizontal zone, above which the bulls could make a fresh attempt to conquer the psychological level of 1.1000.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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EUR/USD additional technical levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Latest price today 1.0768
Today I change daily 0.0003
Today’s daily variation 0.03
Today’s daily opening 1.0765
Trends
daily SMA20 1.0874
daily SMA50 1,071
SMA100 daily 1.0761
SMA200 daily 1.0823
Levels
Previous daily high 1.0779
Previous daily low 1.0742
Previous weekly high 1.0895
Previous weekly low 1.0724
Previous Monthly High 1.1017
Previous monthly low 1.0517
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 1.0765
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 1.0756
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0745
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0725
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0707
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0782
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0799
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0819

Source: Fx Street

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