- The EUR/USD remains firm about 1,1285 in the early Asian session on Wednesday.
- Waller of the Fed said that if the impact of tariffs threatens with a deep economic slowdown, then it would support a rates cut sooner.
- The ECB is expected to cut interest rates at 25 basic points on Thursday.
The EUR/USD pair quotes in positive territory around 1,1285 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) currently lies about a minimum of three years against the euro (EUR) while commercial tensions are maintained. Operators prepare for the US retail sales report and the speech of the Federal Reserve President (Fed), Jerome Powell, Wednesday.
The governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller, said on Monday that Trump administration tariff policies were a great shock for the US economy that could lead the central bank to cut rates to avoid a recession, even if inflation remained high. Meanwhile, the president of the Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, suggested that the Fed Bank should be kept waiting until there is more clarity.
According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the markets are now valuing almost 85 basic points (PBS) of monetary relief by the end of the year, with most waiting for the Fed to keep the rates next month.
On the other side of the ocean, it is widely anticipated that the European Central Bank (ECB) cuts the interest rates in 25 PBS on Thursday in the midst of growing concerns about a recession linked to US tariffs. The ECB reduced interest rates for the second consecutive time in March, carrying the 2.5%deposit rate. An additional reduction would see the rate reduced to 2.25%.
Euro Faqs
The euro is the currency of the 19 countries of the European Union that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most negotiated currency in the world, behind the US dollar. In 2022, it represented 31 % of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily business volume of more than 2.2 billion dollars a day. The EUR/USD is the most negotiated currency pair in the world, with an estimate of 30 %of all transactions, followed by the EUR/JPY (4 %), the EUR/GBP (3 %) and the EUR/AU (2 %).
The European Central Bank (ECB), based in Frankfurt (Germany), is the Eurozone reserve bank. The ECB establishes interest rates and manages monetary policy. The main mandate of the ECB is to maintain price stability, which means controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its main tool is the rise or decrease in interest rates. Relatively high interest rates (or the expectation of higher types) usually benefit the euro and vice versa. The GOVERNMENT BOOK of the ECB makes decisions about monetary policy in meetings that are held eight times a year. The decisions are made by the directors of the National Banks of the Eurozone and six permanent members, including the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the harmonized consumer prices index (IPCA), are an important economic indicator for the euro. If inflation increases more than expected, especially if it exceeds 2% of the ECB, it forces the ECB to rise interest rates to control it again. Relatively high interest rates compared to their counterparts usually benefit the euro, since they make the region more attractive as a place for global investors to deposit their money.
Published data measure the health of the economy and can have an impact on the euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment and consumer trust surveys can influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the euro. Not only attracts more foreign investment, but it can encourage the ECB to raise interest rates, which will directly strengthen the euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the euro is likely to fall. The economic data of the four largest economies in the euro zone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, since they represent 75% of the economy of the euro area.
Another important fact that is published on the euro is the commercial balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what you spend on imports during a given period. If a country produces highly demanded export products, its currency will gain value simply by the additional demand created by foreign buyers seeking to buy those goods. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens a currency and vice versa in the case of a negative balance
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
