The EUR/GBP has remained better than expected, driven by the strength of the euro and the pressure on the sterling pound due to the increase in the yields of the Gilts. While a moderate ECB could limit short -term profits, the fiscal stimulus in the Eurozone and the expectations of raising rates in 2026 could boost the upward pair over time, the FX analysts of ING, Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner point out.
EUR/GBP exceeds thanks to the strength of the euro
“The EUR/GBP has been much stronger than most expected, largely due to the strength of the euro. However, the greatest yields of the Gilts, dragged upwards for the massive sale of treasure bonds, could be harming the pound sterling. Any return movement in the gilts at 10 years towards 4.90/5.00% could trigger a greater independent weakness of the GBP.”
“A moderate ECB could keep the EUR/GBP restricted in the short term. However, the EUR/GBP should begin to advance again in 2026 when the growth of the eurozone receives an impulse from the fiscal stimulus and the market could be beginning to assess a rise in ECB rates at the end of 2026. The new negotiation range of the EUR/GBP could be something like 0.8500-0.8750 for the second quarter. “
Source: Fx Street

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