EUR/GBP operates in negative below the level of 0.8600 before the decision on the ECB rates

• The EUR/GBP slides down and reverses part of the recovery profits on Wednesday from the weekly minimum.
• A modest rebound of the USD weighs on the euro and exerts pressure on the crossing before the ECB.
• The hopes of a commercial agreement between the United Kingdom and the US and the betting bets of less aggressive rates of the BOE support the GBP.

The EUR/GBP crossing has difficulty capitalizing on the moderate rebound of the previous day from the area of ​​0.8525-0.8520 or a new weekly minimum and attracts some sellers intradicted on Thursday. Cash prices remain depressed below the 0.8600 level during the first half of the European session, although the fall is supported since operators choose to stay out before the risk of the key event of the Central Bank.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its policy decision later today and is widely expected to reduce its key interest rate in 25 basic points (BPS). This would mark the sixth consecutive reduction of rates amid the softening of inflation in the eurozone and uncertainty about the commercial policies of US President Donald Trump. An import tariff of 10% remains in force despite the change of Trump over the so -called reciprocal tariffs announced earlier this month.

Meanwhile, a modest rebound of the US dollar (USD) from the vicinity of a minimum of several years seems to weigh on the euro, which, in turn, acts as an obstacle to the EUR/GBP crossing. The sterling pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues with its relative higher performance amid the hope that the United Kingdom finally achieves a commercial agreement with the USA. In fact, the American vice president JD Vance said there was a “good possibility” that a commercial agreement with the United Kingdom could be reached.

This, to a large extent, eclipses the inflation figures of the United Kingdom consumer softer than expected published on Wednesday. The National Statistics Office reported that the General Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the United Kingdom slowed to an annual rate of 2.6% in March from 2.8% of the previous month. However, investors seem convinced that a total global commercial war would press prices, which, in turn, supports the opinion that the Bank of England (BOE) will reduce the indebtedness costs more slowly.

The aforementioned fundamental background suggests that the lower resistance path for the EUR/GBP crossing is down. However, the lack of significant sales justifies a certain caution before positioning for an extension of the recent setback from the region of 0.8735-0.8740, or the highest level since November 2023 reached last Friday.