Coinbase expect “cryptosim”

The Coinbase research unit has published a warning about a possible prolonged decrease in the cryptocurrency market. In the analytical note dated April 15, 2025, the head of institutional research of the exchange David Duong noted that the behavior of key indicators indicates a possible reversal of the cycle.

According to him, the fall of bitcoin and the Coin50 index below the 200-day sliding medium is a technical signal, which is often interpreted as a border between a growing and falling trend. This shift has already led to the mass exit of investors from altcoins and activation of profit fixation.

The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market, with the exception of bitcoin, decreased to $ 950 billion. This is almost 41% lower than the December maximums and comparable to the levels observed in 2021.

According to the report, the dynamics in the altcoin sector is particularly alarming, where activity has fallen to a minimum from the beginning of the current cycle. Strengthening the dollar, reducing liquidity and technical failures complement the picture of a fall in interest in digital assets.

According to Coinbase, the industry begins to repeat the script of 2022, when the sale led to many months of stagnation.

Special attention in the report is paid to the venture market, which does not yet show signs of sustainable recovery. Despite the slight revitalization of investments at the end of 2024, the volume of investments in cryptostartas remains two times lower than the peak values ​​recorded in the “bull” period 2021–2022, experts emphasized.

Experts also came to the conclusion that financing of infrastructure and Defi projects turned out to be especially vulnerable against the background of the growth of interest rates and liquidity reduction. This limits the influx of new ideas and delays the launch of promising solutions, the report said.

According to Dung, geo -economic risks and tightening of fiscal policy remain key barriers to restore. The continuation of the tariff war and the restraining measures of central banks reduce access to capital for high -risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

This leads to the “paralysis” of the investment landscape, in which both venture players and institutional investors are in no hurry to enter the market, the expert notes. As a result, growth potential is blocked not only inside the ecosystem, but also from the traditional financial sector.

Despite the growing signs of weakness, Coinbase retains restrained optimism. Analysts expect that the market can reach the local bottom between the middle and end of the II quarter of 2025. In this case, the second half of the year is able to become a fracture point, especially if the macroeconomic pressure weakens.

Duong emphasizes that the turning of moods can occur quickly – that is why the exchange advises to occupy a “defensive position”, but not lose sight of the market. The key factor will remain the speed of restoration of liquidity, the report said.

At the end of the report, Coinbase draws parallels with the events of 2022, when a sharp reduction in liquidity and a series of bankruptcy of crypto companies led to large -scale losses. Although the current situation looks less dramatic, the market structure demonstrates similar features: capital outflow, decline in activity and fatigue of a retail investor.

However, with a favorable development of events, a rapid rebound is possible, especially against the backdrop of revitalization of institutional interest, Coinbase emphasized. According to the company, the scenario of the Fast Thaw is not yet excluded, especially closer to the fall.

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