CNY: Weak data points to lower rates – Commerzbank

This morning, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released its monthly data report, which was generally uninspiring, notes Volkmar Baur, FX analyst at Commerzbank.

China’s weak economy calls for lower interest rates

“While retail sales were slightly positive, other data points remained weak. Investment in particular was much lower than most analysts had expected, according to Bloomberg. In addition to the housing market, infrastructure investment appears to be weighing increasingly on growth.”

“So overall, it was not a good start for the Chinese economy in the third quarter. We expect an improvement in the interest rate differential between China and the US as a result of the US interest rate cut cycle to boost the CNY in the coming months.”

“However, the potential remains limited as China’s weak economy also argues for lower interest rates.”

Source: Fx Street

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