Deadly heatwaves fueled by climate change are threatening India’s development and risk reversing progress made by the country in poverty reduction, health and economic growth, a new study has found.
Heatwaves have already critically affected the country, leading to power outages, increased dust and air pollution and accelerated glacial melting in northern India, researchers at the University of Cambridge said in study published in the journal PLOS Climate on Wednesday (19).
Since 1992, more than 24,000 people have died from heat waves in India, according to the study. And the impacts are set to get worse as they become more frequent, intense and deadly due to the climate crisis.
“India is currently facing a collision of multiple cumulative climate hazards,” the researchers said. “Long-term projections indicate that heat waves in the country may exceed, by 2050, the limit of survival of a healthy human being resting in the shade”.
The study shows that millions more people in India are vulnerable to climate change than initially thought. More than 90% of the country could be severely affected by heat waves, falling into a “danger” zone of extreme heat, according to the heat index, according to the study.
The heat index measures the thermal sensation and considers the temperature and humidity of the air to assess the impact of heat on the population. Last year, India experienced a scorching wave, during which parts of the country reached over 49 degrees Celsius.
In 2022, India experienced its hottest April in 122 years and its hottest March on record, the study said. And it also experienced extreme weather on 242 of the 273 days between January and October 2022, the researchers found.
This repeated heat stress will affect millions of lives and livelihoods.
“Estimates show a 15% reduction in daytime outdoor work capacity due to extreme heat by 2050,” the study found. “Increased heat is expected to cost India 2.8% and 8.7% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and lower living standards by 2050 and 2100 respectively.”
By mid-century, 70 Indian cities should have more than 1 million inhabitants, according to the study.
Extreme heat will pose a threat to their energy security and health and will reverse progress on inequality and poverty reduction, the researchers found.
“My family in Kolkata is suffering from the current heat waves that lead to frequent load reductions,” said study author Dr. Ramit Debnath, in reference to forced power outages that reduce voltage on the grid. “The climate-energy nexus is becoming more relevant,” he added.
It is usually the poorest and most vulnerable who suffer the most. Heatwaves “will have unprecedented consequences for low-income populations,” the study said.
As an example, the authors point to the rapidly urbanizing capital, New Delhi, which “has a high level of construction activity, particularly involving a low-income workforce, which is also at serious risk from heatwave impacts.”
Although India has a “climate vulnerability index” through which it assesses its vulnerability to the climate crisis, the authors believe that this underestimates the impact of heat waves on the country’s development.
India has committed to the UN Sustainable Development Goals, a list of 17 goals that include reducing poverty, hunger, inequality and disease, as well as promoting health, education and sanitation. By failing to understand the true threat of heat waves to its population, India is in danger of missing out on these goals.
Study co-author Professor Ronita Bardhan said the recommendations could be used to build heat resilience for low-income housing, as “these communities are more vulnerable to impacts”.
“Packages focused on heat and health for low-income residents and slums are especially critical, as we show that heatwaves have devastating impacts on urban sustainability,” she said.
Another practical application is urban greening strategies, particularly around highly dense areas, which “may provide relief from the effects of urban heat islands,” Bardhan said.
The authors stress the “urgency” in recommending that India update its extreme weather assessment to include the heat index and its impact on the country’s sustainable development.
“India has shown tremendous leadership in scaling up heat action plans over the last five years, declaring heat waves a natural disaster and mobilizing appropriate relief resources,” the authors said.
But “as heatwaves in India and the Indian subcontinent become recurrent and long-lasting, it is time for climate experts and policymakers to reassess the metrics for estimating the country’s climate vulnerability.”
Source: CNN Brasil
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