Seji Adachi, a member of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has made some comments this wednesday on the inflation outlook in japan.
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The impact of the fall in commodity prices on the CPI will appear with a delay of about nine months.
The impact of the fall in commodity prices will probably start to appear in the CPI data from July.
The focus is on property prices around summer.
If goods prices do not fall by the summer, we may need to revise our base assumption that consumer price inflation will return to below 2% by the middle of this fiscal year..
A global recession would put strong downward pressure on Japanese prices, so the Bank of Japan will need to keep policy loose.
If foreign growth rebounds and pushes up domestic prices, we will of course go into a phase of calibrating the timing of a policy change..
Personally, I see it as difficult for the next monetary policy meeting in July to make a strong call on the inflation outlook.
What we fear most is a premature policy change that will return Japan to deflation..
Source: Fx Street

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