As global leaders gather in Dubai for the UN’s annual climate summit, new analysis shows how cities hosting climate events could be inundated – if not entirely submerged – by rising ocean waters.
The relentless rise in planet-warming pollution has already resulted in severe droughts, deadly floods and rapid melting of ice around the world. And scientists say the steady rise in global sea levels will continue for many decades as temperatures rise.
Analysis by Climate Central, a non-profit climate research group, illustrates the risk if countries are unable to halt the planet’s precipitous warming trend. A recent UN report showed that the world is currently on track to warm by up to 2.9 degrees Celsius.
Using peer-reviewed sea level rise projections and local elevation from Climate Central models, the findings paint compelling pictures that paint a stark contrast between the world as we know it and our high-tide future if the planet warms by up to 3 degrees Celsius above prehistoric level.
“The decisions made at COP28 will shape the long-term future of Earth’s coastal cities, including Dubai,” said Benjamin Strauss, chief scientist and CEO of Climate Central.
Climate scientists have reported that the world is about 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels and is on track to exceed 1.5 degrees of warming in the coming years – a critical threshold beyond which scientists say that humans and ecosystems will have difficulty adapting.
In 2015, at COP21 in Paris, more than 190 countries approved the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, but preferably 1.5 degrees.
The current global trajectory of up to 2.9 degrees could be unbearable for coastal communities, low-lying countries and small island states around the world.
“The survival of these sites and their heritage will depend on whether government and industry leaders can agree to reduce carbon pollution sharply and quickly enough to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” Strauss said.
2023 is already set to be the hottest year on record, according to a report released Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization.
Each month from June to October set new global monthly temperature records by wide margins, while ocean temperatures also reached record levels.
These scorching global temperatures are causing glaciers and ice sheets to melt at alarming rates, adding a significant amount of water to Earth’s oceans.
Even Antarctica, the most isolated continent on the planet, is seeing unprecedented melting events. The melting of some large glaciers is now potentially inevitable and could have devastating implications for global sea level rise.
About 385 million people currently live in areas that will eventually be flooded by ocean water at high tide, even if planet-warming pollution is drastically reduced, according to Climate Central.
If we limit warming to 1.5 degrees, sea level rise would still affect land currently inhabited by 510 million people. But if the planet exceeds 3 degrees, the high tide line could invade lands where more than 800 million people live, a recent study concluded.
But while these scenarios may be centuries away, scientists say that with every fraction of a degree of warming, the consequences of climate change worsen.
At COP28, global leaders will discuss how to reduce planet-warming fossil fuels to avoid the growing likelihood of an underwater future.
This year’s climate talks will also be the first time that countries negotiate a new results framework that will show how seriously they are deviating from their climate targets – and how the window for reducing climate pollution is “rapidly shrinking”.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
