Bankitalia: GDP will fall by 9% by 2050 without the occupation of young people and women

«The aging of the population is a global process and faster than it was not only expected ten years ago. It is the reflection of both a significant improvement in the state of health of the population and of a faster decrease in fertility than expected even in some economies of Asia, primarily China, and Latin America “. These are the first words of the intervention of the deputy chief of the Economy and Statistics Department of Bank of ItalyAndrea Brandolini, to the parliamentary commission of investigation into the effects of the demographic transition.

The population residing in Italy has been falling since 2015, despite a substantial influx of immigrants. In 2050 the population aged between 15 and 64 will be less than 30 million Of units, about one million less than it was in 1950. For every ten people of work age, there will be eight children and the elderly, compared to the current six. “A lower availability of labor mechanically has a negative effect on economic growth, if it is not compensated by greater intensity of work or by its greater productivity”.

The work of young people and women

From 1950 to 2024, the royal GDP per capita increased by 6.7 times, to an average annual rate of 2.6 percent: the increase is entirely attributable to the improvement of the productivity of the work, only in a small part eroded by a reduction in working hours per employee. “In the next twenty -five years, if employment rates, working hours and hourly productivity remained unchanged on current levels, the decrease in the population of work age would imply a decrease in the workput and therefore the GDP of 0.9 percent per year. The reduction of the per capita GDP would be more contained, 0.6 percent annual, due to the parallel flexion of the overall population ».

«The increase in participation rates can substantially contribute to increasing the work input, contrasting the effects of the demographic decline. This has happened from the beginning of the 2000s to today; He can continue to do so in the next twenty -five years only if there will be significant changes in the demand and offer. If participation rates by gender and age classes continued to grow at the same rhythm of the last decade, with the same other conditions, GDP would fall almost 9 percent from here to 2050, 1.6 percent in per capita terms».

In the age group between 15 and 64 years old, In 2024 57.6 percent of women was active, over 13 percentage points less than the European average; In the South this quota was just 43.1 percent. Women represent about two thirds of those who do not seek or are available to work. Excluding the students, family care of family care are the main obstacle to work for over half of these women. There is wide evidence that the birth of a child has a negative impact both on the probability that women remain in the labor market after motherhood is on the income of those that continue to work. These penalties suffered by women with children compared to children without children, and to an even stronger extent than men, are particularly persistent.

«If in Italy the obstacles that prevent the woman from continuing to work after the maternityin the next twenty years we would be able to fill more than a third of the gender gap in employment. To progress towards this goal, targeted public policies are required. As already mentioned, among the most effective measures include the expansion of the offer of accessible and quality services for children, especially in the regions of the South where the coverage is particularly low, and the provision that some monetary transfers are conditioned to purchase care services, reserving a preferential treatment for the nuclei in which both parents work. It is also essential to promote an equal distribution of domestic and care tasks, for example by encouraging a greater use of parental leave by fathers “.

In Italy, participation is particularly low even among young people. The gap compared to the other main European countries depends on various factors. University students take more time to achieve their degree (on average at the age of 25.7 in 2023) and, once graduates, they encounter greater difficulties in inserting the world of work. In addition, in Italy only 8.7 percent of students between 15 and 29 years of age work or are looking for a job during studies, compared to 28.6 percent in the average of the EU (data referring to 2023).

The increase in education levels was accompanied in Italy to a marked decrease in youth participation in work: from 2004 to today the rate of activity in the 15-34 year band has fallen by almost ten percentage points. “It is important to avoid that the greater frequency of superior studies reflects in a removal of young people from the labor market ». At the same time, it is necessary to adopt policies involving the large number of young people who do not work or participate in study or training courses, which represent 15.2 percent of young people between 15 and 29 years old.

If in 2050 the participation rates of young people and women reached those who are currently observed in the average of the EU, without an increase in labor productivity, the per capita GDP would remain substantially stable, but but the overall one would be reduced by 6.8 percent. Only by reaching the highest levels between the EU countries (those of Sweden) would it be possible to compensate for the drop in the overall GDP. A substantial recovery of productivity is therefore a necessary condition for the country’s economic growth.

The weight of immigrants

Immigration has so far been crucial to fill the voids created in the labor market by the decline of the native population and will also be in the coming years. «In 2024 foreigners represented 10.5 percent of the total occupation, but reached 15.1 percent among the workers and craftsmen and 30.1 between unqualified staff; They were 16.9 percent in constructions and 20 in agriculture. Mostly immigrant workers carry out low -quality occupations and worse paid, less accepted to Italian workers ».

The total immigration from 2024 to 2050 is equal to 5 million people in the middle scenario, with a forecasting range from 3.4 to 6.7 million. «The attraction and integration of foreigners are complex and constantly evolving processes, which need effective and updated tools according to the best international experiences. Policies are needed that guarantee regular migratory flows that meet the needs of companies and ensure complete integration for those arriving in the country “.

The social status

The demographic decline will submit “The Italian social status to strong tensions, which will be reconciled with the need to reduce debt”. With the same policies, in the next twenty -five years, the public spending linked to the aging of the population is destined to grow in relation to GDP. According to the most recent projections of the Ageing Report, the total of the disbursements for pensions, health, long-term assistance and education would pass from about 27 percent of the product in 2022-24 to over 28 in the second half of the 1930s, and then gradually descend to just over 25 in 2070, the last year considered by the year.

Here the complete document: Brandolini-15.04.2025.pdf (Application/PDF 337.17kb)