UOB Group economist Lee Sue Ann says Australia’s recent higher-than-expected inflation numbers could encourage the RBA to raise its OCR at its November meeting.
Main conclusions
The headline CPI stood at 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2023, slightly above expectations of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, and against a reading of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, continuing the downward trend of 6.0% year-on-year in the second quarter, although slightly above expectations of 5.3 % year-on-year.
For its part, the unemployment rate fell from 3.7% in August to 3.6% the previous month, despite employers cutting 39,900 full-time positions. The determining factor was the fall in the activity rate, which fell 0.3 percentage points to 66.7% in September, from 67.0% in August, a historical maximum.
We have been considering the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising the interest rate one last time this year, taking the cash rate target to a maximum of 4.35%. Regarding the calendar, we believe that it will take place at the meeting on November 7, after the publication today of the CPI for the third quarter of 2023.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
