AUD/USD remains below 0.6900 after US data, bears expect break below 50-day SMA

  • AUD/USD is again approaching its monthly low amid strong tracking of USD buying.
  • Upbeat US macro data reaffirms hawkish Fed expectations and boosts the USD.
  • The prevailing risk averse state also benefits the dollar and weighs on the risk sensitive Aussie.

The pair AUD/USD It maintains its strongly offered tone during the early stages of the North American session and falls back near the monthly low in reaction to the encouraging macroeconomic data from the United States. The pair is currently trading around the 0.6885-0.6880 zone, and the bears are now looking for a sustained break below the 50-day SMA before placing further bets.

The US Census Bureau reported that monthly Retail Sales grew 3% in January, well above estimates of 1.8%. In addition, core retail sales excluding autos rose 2.3% during the reported month, up sharply from the 0.9% (upwardly revised) decline recorded in December. Elsewhere, the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index also beat expectations, improving to -5.8 in February from -32.9 previously.

The data confirmed bets on further Fed tightening and gave fresh impetus to the US dollar, which in turn put AUD/USD lower. Meanwhile, concerns over economic difficulties stemming from rapidly rising borrowing costs weigh on global risk sentiment. This is evident in the sea of ​​red sweeping through the equity markets and is seen as another factor weighing on the risk-sensitive Aussie.

From a technical point of view, the AUD/USD pair seems to have confirmed a bearish through an uptrend line extending from the October 2022 low. A follow-through selling below the 50-day SMA will reaffirm the negative bias. This should pave the way for an extension of the recent pullback from the highest level since June 2022, around the 0.7155-0.7160 zone touched earlier this month.

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Last price today 0.6891
Today Daily Variation -0.0101
today’s daily variation -1.44
today’s daily opening 0.6992
Trends
daily SMA20 0.7002
daily SMA50 0.688
daily SMA100 0.6695
daily SMA200 0.6806
levels
previous daily high 0.703
previous daily low 0.6922
Previous Weekly High 0.7011
previous weekly low 0.6856
Previous Monthly High 0.7143
Previous monthly minimum 0.6688
Fibonacci daily 38.2 0.6988
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 0.6963
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6932
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6873
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6824
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.7041
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.7089
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.7149

Source: Fx Street

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