The suspension of meat exports to China could cause losses of US$ 500 million to the sector, calculates the Association of Brazilian Exporters (AEB). The forecast of the entity considers that the interruption lasts one month.
The value is considerable, but much smaller than the loss of more than US$ 1 billion with the suspension of exports for more than three months, between September and December 2021.
According to data from the Brazilian Association of Refrigerators (Abrafrigo), in 2022, exports to China had revenues of almost US$ 8 billion. This means more than 60% of total export revenue for the sector.
The Asian country is the main destination for shipments of Brazilian animal protein, absorbing 57% of production. In second place comes the United States, with 9.4%. Brazil exports meat to 102 countries.
In an interview with CNN economy analyst Thais Herédia, José Augusto de Castro, president of AEB, said this Thursday that the interruption should be resolved in April. For him, a month is enough and necessary for everything to be clarified and all negotiations to be done.
Could this affect prices in Brazil?
This scenario also raises questions about the possibility of changes in the internal prices of the protein, since the offer can be directed to Brazilian consumers.
The answer, however, is “not necessarily”. This is because, in addition to the country having the possibility of redistributing the offer, the cattleman can choose to keep the cattle in the pasture a little longer, considering that winter has not yet arrived, according to Andre Braz, economist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV).
*Published by Ligia Tuon / with information by Thais Herédia
Source: CNN Brasil
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