Anxiety in Canada ahead of elections – “They have the form of a referendum on Trinto”

The outgoing liberal Justin Trinto or the conservative Erin O’Toole? One week before the parliamentary elections, the anxiety is at its peak Canada. Polls predict an ambiguous battle between the two major parties and strong regional stakes complicate forecasts.

At the start of the last week of the election campaign, the two major parties appear in the polls to receive 30 to 34% of the vote, and the New Democratic Party around 20%.

Announcing early parliamentary elections in mid-August, Justin Trinto hoped he could regain the majority he lost in the 2019 elections to the House of Commons.

But this risky bet seems, after four weeks of campaigning, “impossible”, says Andre Lamoure, a professor at the University of Quebec. “He could still be a minority,” he added.

If neither of the two major parties in power since 1867 succeeds in gaining a majority in the 338-member federal parliament, the winner will have to form a minority government.

This election is finally “a referendum for or against Justin Trinto”

This election is ultimately “a referendum for or against Justin Trindade because we see that conservative ideas are not more popular than before,” said Genevieve Telier of the University of Ottawa.

People “have realized that Justin Trinto’s decision to start an election campaign was based on very strategic thoughts.”

After all, his opponents have not stopped claiming in recent weeks that this is a “useless” campaign since “parliament was working” and the country is, like the rest of the world, facing a fourth wave of Covid-19.

“We have to work together against the pandemic. “This is not the time for elections,” Conservative leader Erin O’Toole has repeatedly said in a televised debate.

After six years in power, accused of inaction in the field of environment or foreign policy in particular, the outgoing prime minister is experiencing one frustration after another in this campaign.

And on the field, a crowd of protesters angry at the health measures follow him every move. One of them even threw pebbles at him last week.

In late August, surrounded by protesters, he was forced to cancel an election meeting.

“We can not afford another four years with Mr. Trinto,” said Jagmit Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party (NPD, left), calling him “all words but no action” on the environment.

End of “Trindomania”

“The ‘sunny’ streets promised in 2015 look very far away and many voters are now seeing hollow words there,” adds Genevieve Telier.

But 49-year-old Justin Trinto has been trying lately to show that he is the only credible leader and that his main opponent does not have the stature of a leader.

He has repeatedly referred to ODToul’s “helpless leadership”, his lack of ambition in the field of climate and his vulnerable position towards the more conservative wing of his party (mainly those who oppose abortion and climate skeptics).

After the last debate, it also seems that the regional dynamics will be decisive in these elections. “Peripheral stakes make forecasts almost impossible,” said McGill University’s Daniel Blanc, referring mainly to Quebec.

The debate in English between party leaders did provoke strong reactions in Quebec, leading the local prime minister, which is rare, to take a position in favor of a conservative government.

In the western part of the country, the issue of the oil sector and its future is crucial. And in Ontario, the NPD can make progress in the greater Toronto area by disrupting the confrontation between liberals and conservatives.

So far, Justin Trindade, who was the new and fashionable face of Canadian politics in 2015, is following in his father’s footsteps. Recovering the majority for a third term is the last step: in a week we will know if it was too high.