Animals That Can “Predict” the Weather, According to Science

Punxsutawney's Phil, the central character of the annual winter festival known as “Groundhog Day”, which takes place in the United States, is not very good at his job. That's because his predictions are wrong more often than they are right.

On Friday (2), the fortune-telling groundhog did not see his shadow, indicating the beginning of spring. Legend has it that when the animal sees the shadow, it is because winter is still going on. However, technically speaking, winter ends on March 19 in the country.

The groundhog is just one of numerous animals that, according to folk tales, have an uncanny ability to predict the weather, including cows that are said to lie down before the rain and furry caterpillars, which are said to be decorated with fewer colors before a freezing winter.

Most of these associations are not linked to modern science – but there is an occasional hint of documented fact among the myths.

Phenology is the study of how seasonal events in the lives of plants and animals change with time and climate. For example, how fish or migratory birds respond to water and air temperature.

The U.S. National Phenology Network tracks when ecological markers of spring arrive in the United States—and the season is already in bloom in certain locations on the East and West coasts.

Theresa Crimmins, director of the US National Phenology Network, said that although groundhogs are not a reliable predictor of spring's arrival, phenology offers scientific support for other animals seemingly superstitious about the natural world.

“People have been observing environmental conditions for many millennia, basically as long as humans have existed,” Crimmins said. “So a lot of these sayings really work because, in some ways, they capture the relationships between environmental conditions and plant response.”

But while popular myth often assumes that animal behavior portends future climate events, in reality, flora and fauna react to time and climate.

Plants and their predictions

The roots of Groundhog Day lie in traditions that were likely imported to the United States from Germany, where the animal that predicted winter was a badger, not a groundhog.

However, numerous tried-and-true proverbs about the natural world come from Native American populations.

“An example is planting corn when oak leaves are the size of a squirrel ear,” notes a phenology paper from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “You know growing corn has nothing to do with oak leaves or squirrels. However, Native Americans noted centuries ago that the soil was warm enough to prevent seeds from rotting, but it was still early enough to harvest an adequate harvest if corn was planted at this time.”

Crimmins points out that there are many other predictors of future ecological events, expressed in the leaves, fruits and flowers of plants.

For example, the shadblow serviceberry is a small tree native to parts of eastern North America, and its name is believed to come from the fact that it bears flowers at the same time of year that shadblows begin their river migration. . The Lenape and other Native American populations noticed the phenomenon long ago and prepared to fish when the plant began to bloom.

Animals and harsh climate

The vehicle The old Farmer's Almanac aggregated a few dozen sayings about insects, animals and their ability to predict weather patterns.

Some of the claims are dubious. Dogs eating grass, for example, are probably a much less accurate indicator of rain than a meteorologist's weather report.

But there's research out there that suggests some animals may possess an innate sense that helps them detect when disaster is on the way.

Golden-winged warblers, a species of bird, for example, evacuated an area of ​​Tennessee more than 24 hours before a devastating series of tornadoes struck the area, according to a December 2014 study published in the journal Current Biology.

The study authors predicted that migratory birds heard infrasound – sound at frequencies too low for humans to hear – associated with storms and considered it a warning signal.

Researchers in Germany also investigated whether various species of animals could detect an approaching earthquake. Scientists found that collectively, animals, including cows, sheep and dogs, exhibited more activity before an earthquake up to 20 hours in advance, according to a report from Germany's Max Planck Society, a nonprofit association of institutes. of investigation.

Insects and frogs

There is also truth to the notion that crickets can act as nature's thermometers. Insects are ectotherms, meaning their body temperature changes with that of the surrounding environment – ​​and they routinely chirp faster in warmer climates.

According to Dolbear's Law, a formula that describes this association between crickets and weather, “you can count the number of chirps for 15 seconds, add 40, and that will give you the temperature in Fahrenheit,” notes the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National.

Frogs also make unique cries when it's about to rain.

“Many 20th century herpetologists confirmed and clarified the traditional observation that several species of frogs sometimes emit a distinctive vocalization, a 'rain call,' shortly before rainy weather,” said Dr. Gordon Miller, professor emeritus of environmental studies at Seattle University, via email.

Fact versus myth

Other tropes about animals' ability to predict seasonal conditions, however, are wrong.

The woolly bear – a species of caterpillar, also called the woolly worm – is believed to predict the severity of the impending winter with its colorful stripes. More black coloration on the insect supposedly indicates harsher conditions down the road.

But in reality, “caterpillar coloration is based on how long the caterpillar has been feeding, its age and species,” according to the National Weather Service. “The better the growing season, the greater your growth. This results in narrower red-orange bands in the middle. Thus, the width of the bands is an indicator of current or past season growth, not an indicator of the severity of the coming winter.”

Climate change and phenology

Unusual animal behavior could also be a reaction to climate change, Crimmins emphasized. And often not in a good way.

The climate crisis and human development are causing all kinds of ecological problems, Crimmins noted. Bears, for example, are hibernating later and waking up earlier due to warmer weather. This could lead to more human-bear interactions as bears search for food, and there is concern about how shorter hibernation periods are affecting bear pregnancies.

Miller added that while frogs may be able to predict the coming rains, “with so many amphibian species continuing to decline due to various environmental and climate factors, perhaps their clearest appeal to us today, as Rachel Carson noted about the birds in 1962, be its decreasing chorus and increasing silence.”