August is historically a quiet period for cryptocurrencies in terms of volatility. Data from Coinglass showedthat on average since 2013 in the last month of summer Bitcoin grew by 2.7%.
In addition to the expected unlocking of tokens worth more than $1.6 billion, as well as the continuation of the distribution of bitcoins from the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox, respondents “RBC-Crypto” Experts have identified a number of factors that could affect Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Macroeconomic expectations
The impact of payments to clients of the Mt.Gox crypto exchange and the sale of confiscated bitcoins by the German government have already been factored into the current price, and the crypto market has avoided significant losses and does not expect new negative events, says Anton Toroptsev, Marketing Director of Bitget in the CIS.
He also noted that the macroeconomic situation in the US is favorable for cryptocurrency, and the possible reduction of the Fed’s key rate in September makes risky assets more attractive.
However, it is possible that the markets have already priced in the expectations of the Fed’s move to lower the base lending rate. Cryptocurrency market analyst Viktor Pershikov believes that this factor has already had an impact on cryptocurrencies: “As the rate cuts approached, the excitement around the event died down. Historically, there has also been a correlation between the decline in US stock markets against the backdrop of the start of monetary policy easing. If this pattern repeats itself, cryptocurrency is unlikely to benefit much from it.”
Geopolitics and elections
Geopolitical risks for markets, including cryptocurrency, will also remain in August. Vagiz Nurullov, managing partner of the financial holding VG GROUP, believes that it will be a positive scenario if the historically inactive August remains the same this year.
Pershikov also noted the possible negative impact of geopolitics on cryptocurrencies:
Pershikov estimated the risk of a decrease in market capitalization by 8-10% if the geopolitical factor plays a role.
All activity for autumn
The combined expectations of experts point to a subdued outlook for August. No expert expects major price changes this month, predicting a more active autumn and the fourth quarter of 2024.
Pershikov assessed similar prospects for the market. In his opinion, in August cryptocurrencies will most likely remain in the previous ranges, with the risk of a decrease in market capitalization by 8-10% if the geopolitical factor plays a role.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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