The financial expert Fred Kruger said that the chances of Bitcoin (BTC) to achieve a new historical maximum (ATH) in 2025 are 77%.
The forecast of Kruger agrees with other analysts. In their opinion, a decrease in the dollar index (DXY) and the growth of global liquidity M2 will become key factors that will help bitcoin rise above $ 100,000.
Bitcoin and chances of ATH this year
Fred Kruger used a model of geometric Brownian traffic (GBM) to assess the likelihood of bitcoin growth to $ 108,000 in 2025.
GBM is a model often used in finance to describe prices. It suggests that the logarithm of the value of the asset follows the geometric Brownian movement. Simply put, the course of the asset consists of two parts:
- deterministic trend (drift), which reflects the expected profitability of the asset over time and is usually expressed as a percentage.
- The random component (stochastic part), which takes into account the volatility or unpredictability of the asset price and is modeled as random fluctuations.
GBM is used in various fields, including options for options, predicting asset prices and portfolio risk analysis.
In his analysis, Kruger first suggested that the BTC follows the GBM model with zero drift and the volatility of 80%. In this case, the probability that Bitcoin will update ATH at $ 108,000 was 65%. Then the expert adjusted the model, adding historical data.
The adjusted forecast for the analyst is contrary to the data of predictive markets. On Polymarket, the probability that the BTC price will set a new record until 2026 is only 52%.
On the Kalshi platform, the chances are even lower. There, the chances of bitcoin grow up to $ 150,000 for a similar period are estimated at 23%.
Analysts predict the beginning of a new bull trend
Another analyst agreed with Kruger’s conclusions and predicted the beginning of a new bull trend. According to him, this will contribute to a strong correlation with the global liquidity of M2 and the weakening of the US dollar.
Global liquidity M2 previously reached a new historical maximum, which is considered a positive signal for bitcoin. Usually BTC reacts to this with a delay of 75-105 days.
Another “bull” factor is a decrease in the DXY index to a three -year minimum.
The analyst expects short -term correction to $ 80,000, but retains long -term optimism. According to his forecasts, by 2030 the BTC can reach $ 550,000–650,000 thanks to its limited offer and depreciation of fiat currencies.
At the time of writing this material, bitcoin is traded approximately 22.1% below its historical maximum. According to Beincrypto, that over the past day its cost has decreased by 6% to $ 84,338.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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