Analysis: Why Trump's Republican rivals dare not hit his soft spot

Donald Trump's closest and increasingly desperate primary rivals are stepping up their attacks, accusing him of lying about them, being afraid of debates and even being a failure as president.

But with just five days until the Iowa caucuses, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley won't dare criticize the Republican front-runner for his main weakness that could hurt him in the election. general and will haunt him in history: his attack on American democracy.

Their reticence could suggest campaign malpractice and betray a lack of political courage as Trump adopts an increasingly autocratic tone ahead of a possible presidency that he promises to use for personal retribution.

In fact, as one Iowa voter told DeSantis in a written question at the Gray TV assembly on Tuesday, “Why do you protect Trump? What are you afraid of?”

But his opponents' stance makes strategic sense, given that the former president appears to have an even firmer grip on the Republican Party than he did when he left Washington after trying to overturn the 2020 election. in its disruptive nature, refusal to follow the rules and popular hero status among Republican voters.

But his power is also reinforced by the base's widespread disinterest in any attempt to call him to account for his undemocratic behavior and the idea that he should shoulder any blame for outrages like his supporters' attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Just as when he was president, when his dominance faced down GOP critics in Congress, Trump's superpower is shielding him from the consequences of his actions and making it politically impossible for primary rivals who want to win a share of his voters. hold him responsible.

Ahead of a two-week period in which he will face an impressive series of legal obligations and possible setbacks in his cases, Trump took a new step on Tuesday (3) in the complex legal tangle caused by his constant defiance of political restrictions.

He filed an appeal against a decision by Maine's Democratic secretary of state to remove him from the ballot due to the 14th Amendment's ban on “insurrectionists.” This followed the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to do the same, which he is also expected to appeal. Both cases will likely end up in the U.S. Supreme Court.

If history is any guide, the election issue – which is constitutionally controversial even among many liberal legal scholars – will further bind Trump to his voter base, as have his four criminal charges and his civil fraud trial in New York. .

And that will have DeSantis and Haley once again looking for a way to attack Trump without alienating Republicans who still feel affection for him.

DeSantis is desperate for an opening

DeSantis, who is counting on a frustrating result in Iowa to revive a campaign that once promised to be a juggernaut across the country, lashed out at the former president on Tuesday for refusing to commit to a debate in Iowa. CNN next week in the Hawkeye State. He suggested he would be a much better implementer of Trumpism in the Oval Office than its author.

“Why shouldn’t he have to answer questions? He's working on things like deporting illegals and building a wall, but he did that in 2016 and didn't succeed. So I think he owes answers to those questions,” DeSantis said.

Later, at the Gray TV town hall, the Florida governor also denied having eased up on Trump and insisted that he had drawn a strong contrast with the former president.

Haley — campaigning in New Hampshire, where she hopes to emerge as the last permanent alternative to Trump — told voters that the former president's new heated attacks on her show he is concerned about the challenge she poses.

“In his commercials and his tantrums, everything he said was a lie. All. I looked for some grain of truth, every one of them,” she said, rejecting Trump’s claims about his gas tax policy while governor.

“The biggest thing everyone talks about is how good the economy was under Trump. It was, wasn't it? But at what cost? He put us $8 trillion in debt in just four years,” she said, later adding, “You don’t pretend to have a good economy by putting us in debt.”

But like DeSantis, Haley didn't touch on the anti-democratic elephant in the room. And as they intensify their focus on Trump, Haley and DeSantis are now launching blistering attacks on each other.

An ad from a pro-Haley super PAC (political action committees) operating in Iowa casts DeSantis as “fake” and “too bad to lead.” The DeSantis political war room has criticized Haley as “Tricky Nikki”. The cruel tone reflects the fact that Haley and DeSantis urgently need to emerge from January as the clear alternative to Trump to survive in the presidential race.

Their mutual antagonism before the official start of the Republican Party's nomination race in Iowa on Jan. 15 has led many observers to believe they are locked in a race for second place in a national race. Trump securing the Republican Party's approval would be a stunning political comeback just three years after putting US democracy to its greatest test in modern times.

While many Americans and much of the free world view the prospect of his return to power with horror, Trump's continued dominance among Republicans reflects a massive disconnect in political and factual perception that destroys middle America.

Most Republicans have little patience with the idea that democracy is threatened

While Democrats and the media fixate on the consequences for democracy of a second Trump term, there is a notable lack of appetite among Republican voters for accountability for what happened at the end of the last presidency.

This long-standing antipathy to considering the events of January 2021 has long shaped the behavior of the Republican Party's top leaders in Washington. In a further sign of Trump's power on Tuesday, Republican House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana formally endorsed the former president.

And a new poll published Tuesday by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland showed that Republican voters are increasingly less interested in holding Trump accountable for January 6, 2021.

While 55% of all U.S. adults see the storming of the Capitol as an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten, 72% of Republicans think it's time to move on. Two years ago, 27% of Republicans thought Trump bore “a great deal” or “a good deal” of responsibility for the attack. Now, just 14% think so, according to the poll, which followed months in which Trump portrayed those detained in the attack as political prisoners.

While democracy is the focus of many lawmakers, experts and journalists in the political world, it is a less tangible issue in the rest of the country, where high prices resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic, for example, resonate more with most voters.

The survey of Republican voters shows why Trump found it so easy to capitalize on his multiple accusations and episodes like Colorado and Maine that drove him off the ballot. And it explains why DeSantis and Haley criticize Trump indirectly but have yet to confront him for pushing American democracy to the limit.

“This was brought to the nation through impeachment. He was acquitted. I think January 6th is included in the cake. I don’t think the Jack Smith cases are changing the political outcome in the polls,” South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said Sunday, referring to the special prosecutor who is prosecuting two federal criminal cases against the ex-president.

“Ultimately, Donald Trump is in a good position to win the Republican primary because Republicans believe he had a good presidency,” Graham said.

Graham's comments reflect the prevailing sentiment among Republican voters following years of false claims of voter fraud by Trump and now accusing President Joe Biden of election interference while presenting himself as the savior of American democracy.

These allegations have been promoted for three years by conservative media amid deep distrust of mainstream media outlets reporting what happened on January 6th.

In June, Trump told his supporters that he viewed his two indictments as a “badge of honor” and that “I am being indicted by you.” Subsequent events at the Iowa caucuses suggest the strategy is working.

Biden opening

Trump may not get a similar accommodation in the general election. Biden, facing dismal poll numbers and anxieties even among his own base about his age, is framing his re-election bid around the claim that Trump and “MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republican extremists” would represent a serious threat to democracy.

This strategy may work in some places because Trump has alienated critical voters in swing states in successive national elections with his extreme behavior and rhetoric. Although with Trump leading Biden in recent state polls, it remains unclear whether the playbook will be enough to win Biden a second term.

Among the Republican Party, however, there is simply no constituency to attack Trump on this issue. The only visible candidate remaining who openly criticizes Trump as a threat to US values ​​is Chris Christie. The former New Jersey governor also lampooned Haley for her euphemistic comments that it's time to get over Trump's “chaos” and drama.

“What? What exactly does this mean, Governor? Why not say so? He’s not the Voldemort from the Harry Potter books,” Christie said in New Hampshire on November 30. But Christie has little traction in the Republican Party outside the state, where independent voters are especially important in choosing the party's nominees.

Voters – not polls – will decide whether Trump wins his third consecutive Republican nomination. And both Iowa and New Hampshire have a history of recent developments that could cause disruption.

But with time running out, Haley and DeSantis' inability to address the stain he has caused on American history leaves two other questions.

Why go through the exhausting and often humiliating process of running for president if you can't use the most potent political material against him? And will the next few weeks prove that Trump was always unbeatable in the 2024 Republican race?