Analysis: Why Mexico's 2024 elections are so important

The countdown is underway in Mexico.

The general elections on June 2 represent a crucial moment in the history of Mexican democracy – not just because just over 98 million Mexicans are called to the polls or because 20,708 public positions are at stake across the country.

These elections are particularly relevant due to the political and social context that Mexico is going through and because, according to experts, Mexicans will vote for the continuity of the policies of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) or for a change of government.

Below is a summary of the reasons why these elections have special significance.

First female president

For the first time in Mexico's history, two women are the main candidates for leadership of Latin America's second largest economy.

Claudia Sheinbaum, from the government coalition “Let’s Continue Making History”; and Xóchitl Gálvez, from the opposition coalition Fuerza y ​​​​Corazón por México.

The most recent Mitofsky survey – carried out from May 3 to 6 with 1,600 adults residing across the country and eligible to vote – says that Sheinbaum continues to lead with 48.9% of voting intentions, a 20.8 pp advantage over crude terms in relation to Gálvez.

This is a slight decrease compared to the April measurement.

“We are sure that we will have a female president for the first time and this is important due to all the symbolic weight it implies in a country where gender violence has not been reduced, unfortunately”, said political analyst Palmira Tapia.

“In terms of discourse and message, it is very powerful for younger generations,” he added.

For international analyst Arlene Ramírez Uresti “it is practically imminent that Mexico will have its first female president and this, without a doubt, sends an interesting message to Latin America”.

In turn, Mariana Linares Cruz, co-founder of Auna, a platform that promotes new political representations with female leaders, agreed with the positive aspects of seeing a woman candidate with her political rights assured, in terms of representation for the rest of the world. the women.

However, experts agree that it is not enough for a woman to be at the head of the Executive branch, but it will be necessary for her to have an agenda with a gender perspective and a particular interest in solving the problems that women experience.

“The important thing is that she is a woman with her own voice, that she governs with a gender perspective and marks a watershed in the country’s history with the reduction in femicides, disappearances and that women’s conditions improve,” said Ramírez Uresti.

Historical participation of women

This will be the first time that there will be gender parity between candidates due to a constitutional reform approved in 2019, which will change the representation of women in decisions about the country's public life.

The parity law guarantees that “half of the decision-making positions are for women in the three branches of the State (Executive, Legislative and Judiciary), in autonomous organizations, in the candidacies of political parties for popular elected positions, as well as in the election of representatives before the municipal councils in municipalities with an indigenous population; Furthermore, language is incorporated that makes women visible and includes them.”

According to data from the National Electoral Institute (INE), there are currently nine states headed by a woman.

In the elections on June 2, eight governors and the head of Government of Mexico City will be renewed, therefore there must be at least five female candidates for these positions.

Furthermore, the electoral colleges are made up of more women than men. According to INE, there are 51,103,424 women, 48,226,062 men and 105 non-binary people.

Electoral violence

The current electoral process in Mexico is already the most violent on record, with 34 candidates or aspiring candidates murdered between June 2023 and May 23, according to a report by the Electoral Laboratory organization.

This number exceeds the 24 murdered candidates reported in the 2018 electoral process, which according to the company “confirms that violence associated with elections has had a worrying increasing trend”.

On the same date, the organization also recorded 272 attacks on candidates and people related to the current electoral process. Of these, 82 were murders, of which 34 were candidates for elected office, in addition to 17 kidnappings, 65 attacks and 108 threats.

“This is a crucial moment for organized crime to influence who will be in power, who will provide protection, information, resources,” said Sandra Ley, director of Mexico's Evalúa security program, a political think tank.

As political attacks escalate, Mexican leaders have promised a swift response and launched an effort to protect threatened candidates with armed escorts.

However, some analysts and party leaders warn that the violence has already cooled some campaigns; and dozens of candidates from several states withdrew their candidacy out of fear for their lives.

More than 20 thousand public positions at stake

The 2024 elections are described as “the biggest in the history of Mexico”, both in terms of elected positions and the number of voters called to the polls.

According to data from INE, the nominal list is made up of 98,329,591 voters, which represents almost 9 million more people than in the 2018 general elections.

Furthermore, anyone in pre-trial detention without sentence was able to vote anywhere in the country, from the 6th to the 20th of May, and there will be early voting for anyone who, due to some disability or physical limitation, is unable to attend a polling place on the day voting day.

20,708 positions elected by the people are at stake. Among them, the Presidency of the Republic will be renewed, as well as Congress: 128 senators and 500 deputies.

Of the senators, 64 will be elected according to the principle of relative majority, 32 according to the principle of proportional representation and the remaining 32 are from the first minority.

Governors will be elected in eight states: Chiapas, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán; as well as the Mexico City headquarters.

In 29 entities, municipal presidencies or municipal chambers will be renewed; and in the capital, the new heads of the 16 city halls will be elected.

Migration

The issue of immigration occupies a prominent place on the national and international agenda and will be one of the main challenges faced by whoever wins the presidential elections.

The head of mission of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Mexico, Dana Graber Ladek, told CNN that the country will face a growing number of people arriving in Mexico as a destination or transit country.

In 2023, the National Migration Institute (INM) recorded 782,176 encounters of irregular migrants in Mexico, which represented a 77% increase compared to 2022, when 441,409 arrivals were recorded.

This number included 113,660 children under 18, which meant an increase of 60% compared to the previous year, with 71,206 registrations.

Myriam Guadalupe Castro Yáñez, academic at the National School of Social Service at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), agrees that the number of migrants crossing Mexico's southern border will represent a great challenge because the country has three types of migratory flow : transit, origin and destination.

He added that Mexico will also continue to face foreign policies, such as the controversial Texas law – signed into law by Governor Greg Abbott last December, which allows state authorities to detain people suspected of having entered the United States illegally and order their deportation – which is suspended while a federal court reviews its legality.

López Obrador's government has warned that it will not receive people deported by Texas under the law known as SB4 and that it will only discuss immigration issues with the federal government.

Candidates Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez agree with this position.

The experts consulted by CNN highlight the importance of authorities guaranteeing access to the services and security that migrants need and improving their existing conditions at the country's immigration posts, as well as providing them with access to information and legal defense.