Analysis: What would happen if Biden dropped his candidacy

A growing number of Democrats in Congress are calling on Joe Biden to end his reelection bid after his poor performance in last month’s debate and his failure since then to convince members of his own party that he can defeat former President Donald Trump in November.

It wouldn’t be an easy process, given that Biden is already the Democrats’ presumptive nominee and the overwhelming choice of primary voters. He faced little opposition during the primary season, and the fact that he won nearly all of the party’s delegates makes it very unlikely that he would be removed from the race against his will.

The current primary system, which gives primary voters power over party bosses, grew primarily out of dissatisfaction after Democrats chose Vice President Hubert Humphrey as their nominee in 1968. Even after President Lyndon Johnson withdrew from the presidential race that year, acknowledging his declining popularity and opposition to the Vietnam War, Humphrey represented a continuation of Johnson’s Vietnam policy at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Violence erupted when protesters clashed with police as Humphrey accepted the nomination.

Things would be very different in 2024 if Biden decided to drop out of the race.

What would happen if Biden ended his candidacy?

There are two paths. If Biden drops out before being officially nominated by the party and according to the current Democratic rules, the steps would be:

1. Potential nominees would need to obtain signatures from hundreds of delegates and be recognized as candidates;
2. Then, 3,949 delegates — nearly all former Biden delegates — and 747 superdelegates would be called to choose the nominee. The candidates would campaign among the delegates to win their votes;
3. Superdelegates may or may not participate in the first round of voting. If no candidate obtains a majority, voting continues in subsequent rounds;
4. To secure the nomination, the candidate must have a majority of 2,349 votes (out of a total of 4,696 votes).

If Biden drops out after the party’s official nomination, the steps would be:

1. Democratic Party Chairman Jaime Harrison would hold a consultation with Democratic governors and congressional leaders;
2. Then members of the Democratic National Committee, which includes more than 400 representatives from every U.S. state and territory, vote for a new candidate.

Note: The Democratic Party is moving forward with a plan to hold a virtual roll call to officially nominate Biden on Aug. 1, ahead of the Aug. 19-22 convention in Chicago, but that process has not yet been finalized. Party rules and processes are subject to change.