Analysis: what to know about the “Super Tuesday” of the American elections

It is an important new phase of the presidential primaries, when the first contests end and voters in several states vote in primaries scheduled to take place on the same date.

This is called “Super Tuesday,” and it’s a big deal, even though neither Democratic President Joe Biden nor former President Donald Trump had to put in the effort in this year’s race.

Tuesday's primary could offer the last opportunity for former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley's lackluster, utopian effort to challenge Trump for the Republican presidential nomination.

What happens on Super Tuesday?

Instead of a single primary or caucuses, Super Tuesday brings together 15 contests for Republicans and 16 contests for Democrats spread across the country.

More than a third of Republican delegates are at stake, along with an equally large portion of Democratic delegates. Biden is undefeated in this year's primaries and Trump has lost just one.

Which states are holding the vote?

A large cross-section of the country will vote on Super Tuesday – red states and blue states from the north, south, east and west.

The primaries at stake include the first three states of the alphabet, as any student should know how to say: Alabama, Alaska (for the Republicans) and Arkansas.

Additionally, there are California and Colorado; Maine, Massachusetts and Minnesota; North Caroline; Oklahoma; Tennessee and Texas; Utah; Vermont and Virginia.

Tuesday also marks the end of Democrats' mail-in presidential preference process in Iowa and a Democratic caucus in American Samoa.

How did Trump and Biden perform on previous Super Tuesdays?

In 2016, Super Tuesday was the moment when Trump truly took control of the Republican primaries. Trump won seven of 11 contests that day, although he lost the biggest prize, Texas.

There was still a close race for delegates in 2016, unlike this year, in which Trump won almost every contest before Super Tuesday and has a growing delegate lead over Haley.

In 2020, Biden won 10 of 14 Super Tuesday contests. He has not faced any serious competition from Democrats this year and is expected, as is traditional for incumbents, to win every contest on Tuesday.

What are the stories we should watch?

For Republicans, the question is whether Haley can gain any traction. She won only one state – the primary in Washington, D.C., according to a projection by the CNN on Sunday (3).

She is far behind in delegates, but Haley insists Republicans deserve a second choice. Barring some unforeseen eruption of support for Haley, will a Super Tuesday setback knock her out of the race?

For Democrats, Biden is emerging from a shake-up in Michigan. He easily won the Democratic primary, but more than 100,000 Democratic primary voters voted “uncommitted” rather than for Biden.

The “uncommitted” vote won two delegates from Michigan, the only delegates Biden has lost so far.

With the Palestinian death toll in Gaza surpassing 30,000, Democratic primary voters in a state with a strong Arab-American and Muslim population were protesting the president's policy toward Israel and wanted him to push much harder. for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Are there signs of more protests on Super Tuesday?

Meanwhile, none of the Democrats challenging Biden have gained much traction. Rep. Dean Phillips failed to break out of single digits in states where Biden campaigned.

One former rival, Marianne Williamson, effectively took the unusual step of suspending her campaign.

When will these primaries end?

Not technically on Super Tuesday. Neither candidate will be able to obtain a majority of delegates by the end of March, with both candidates likely to pass the “magic number” on March 12th or 19th.

Trump will need to win 1,215 of 2,429 delegates, while Biden needs 1,968 of 3,934 delegates.

Regardless, the primaries will continue until early June. Conventions only take place in July for Republicans and August for Democrats.

How did Super Tuesday come about?

The modern primary system has only grown in recent decades. Super Tuesday grew from this. The term was first used in the 1980s.

Democrats in southern states, wanting a moderate candidate, timed their primaries to gain more power in the process. It did not always achieve this objective.

Then-Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis, a liberal, largely overturned the 1988 Democratic primary with victories on Super Tuesday.

In 1992, however, then-Arkansas governor Bill Clinton completed his comeback by sweeping the southern states on Super Tuesday that year.

In 2008, 21 states held votes on a Super Tuesday in early February, an example of bringing forward the primaries.

But then-Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton split the delegates among the Democrats.

Senator John McCain decisively pushed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney out of the Republican race.

Source: CNN Brasil

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