Analysis: What Happened to Former China Leader Hu Jintao

It’s a moment that, for many observers, defines leader Xi Jinping’s heightened rigor over China: his visibly fragile predecessor, Hu Jintao, being escorted out of a key Communist Party meeting during a five-year leadership reshuffle — apparently the order from Xi.

Footage of two men leading the 79-year-old from his seat and toward the exit was broadcast around the world as the party’s National Congress came to a close on Saturday, prompting days of speculation over whether Hu was the victim of a deliberate game of public display of power.

This week, those rumors have only grown – despite an allegation by Chinese state media on Twitter that Hu left due to ill health – and the intrigue is likely to escalate further with the release of footage showing the 90 seconds leading up to his removal. sudden.

The footage, released by Singapore’s CNA broadcaster on Tuesday, shows a series of high-profile conversations between party leaders, in which Hu is repeatedly barred from looking at official documents in front of him.

The video shows Li Zhanshu, the party’s number three official, who is sitting next to Hu at the front table on the stage, takes the documents from Hu’s hand and places them under a red folder. When Hu takes the documents, Li pulls them out.

Xi Jinping, who is sitting on the other side of Hu Jintao, looks at the two and summons a senior aide with whom he speaks briefly. Moments later, a second aide rushes in, takes an instruction from Xi, and speaks to Hu, who is apparently perplexed.

According to footage that circulated on Saturday, Hu – who appears reluctant to leave – is then lifted from his chair, taken by the arm and escorted out.

None of the footage — released on Saturday or Tuesday — was broadcast in China. The incident was also not reported in Chinese-language media or discussed on Chinese social media, where conversations around senior leaders are highly restricted.

Late Saturday night, China’s official Xinhua news agency tweeted in English that Hu “insisted on attending” the closing ceremony despite his failing health, and was escorted out after feeling unwell. However, in China, where Twitter is blocked, the incident was not mentioned.

On the social network Weibo, censors even narrowed search results to vague keywords such as “escorted” or “leave the meeting” in an apparent effort to prevent users from making thinly veiled references to the incident, according to Eric Liu. , censorship analyst for the China Digital Times.

Tuesday’s image has fueled fervent speculation about what was in the document and why Hu wasn’t allowed to see it — and left observers divided on why he left.

Some claim it was likely due to Hu’s poor health or mental state – after retiring in 2013, he was seen in public looking increasingly frail. Others suggest it could be a deliberate power play by Xi to show his unrivaled authority.

Symbol of a new era

Like many unexplained episodes in the black box of elite Chinese politics, the real reason behind Hu’s unexpected departure may never be known. But experts say the symbolism — intentional or not — is hard to ignore: Having eradicated any vestige of influence from party elders or rival factions, Xi has ushered in a new era of one-man rule surrounded only by loyalists.

Gone, meanwhile, are the many brands that defined his decade in power, during which he presided over a period of double-digit economic growth and comparative openness.

Hu also resigned from his party and military positions when he retired in 2012 after two terms in power – earning praise from Xi for “his broad mind and noble character”.

While Hu was never as powerful as Xi is now – in part due to the collective leadership model and the balanced influence of various factions and party elders, including his predecessor Jiang Zemin – he was associated with a faction linked to the Communist Youth League. , a once-powerful group whose influence waned considerably under Xi Jinping.

Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, said the latest images suggest Hu’s dramatic departure was likely unplanned.

“For whatever reason, Xi ordered Hu to be escorted out when he must have thought that Hu might not behave exactly as Xi wanted,” he said.

The new video was interpreted by some as a sign of Hu’s alleged discontent with the outcome of the Congress, which saw Xi consolidate his power by stacking the new leadership team with his loyal allies and proteges.

Premier Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, head of China’s top advisory body, both retired from the party’s Politburo Supreme Standing Committee despite being a year below the unofficial retirement age of 68. Li and Wang are seen as closer to Hu Jintao’s sphere of influence.

In an even more surprising revelation on Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister Hu Chunhua, another protégé of the old Hu (the two are not related), was removed from the new 24-member Politburo. Once seen as a rising star being groomed for leadership, Hu Chunhua’s political future has been reduced under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

But Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University, said a planned public purge at the close of the congress was unlikely given the party’s emphasis on unity. “The Chinese Communist Party values ​​the image of unity and control more than ever during the Xi era,” Sung said.

If Xi had wanted to purge Hu to prevent the former leader from raising objections in public, he would have done so before foreign media could enter the auditorium, Sung said.

“A purge of high-ranking Hu at a critical time like the 20th Party Congress shows the presence of dissent and the notion that Xi is at least ‘challengeable,’” he said. of Xi”.

“No empathy”

Many observers were also impressed by the apparent coolness of the other leaders on stage. Few showed any concern for Hu, and many avoided looking in his direction.

“There is no empathy,” said Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

To move up the party, officials learned to hide their emotions and personal characteristics, Wu said: “They just try to be like a machine in the party machine.”

As he left, Hu Jintao patted his protégé, Prime Minister Li, on the shoulder, who nodded and turned briefly to watch him walk away. Beside Li, Wang sat up straight and looked straight ahead, apparently frozen.

Farther down the edge of the stage, Hu Chunhua didn’t even cast a glance at the party elder as he passed. Instead, he stared straight ahead with a noticeable frown and his arms crossed over his chest.

But even if the real reason for Hu Jintao’s departure is never clear, the incident nevertheless sent an unmistakable message about Xi’s absolute grip on power, analysts say.

Hu Jintao’s undignified retreat showed that “Xi Jinping had reduced the once-mighty (communist) Youth League faction to insignificance,” said Tsang of the University of London.

“With no successor in sight and the previous leader humiliated, Xi projected for the party that […] no one in the party should look over their shoulder at another leader, be it the future or the past,” Tsang said.

“Now there is only one leader in China.”