Analysis: “Trump moment” in the Netherlands shows that Europe has a populist problem

The surprising election results in the Netherlands took Europe by surprise and left many viewers unsure exactly what will happen next.

Far-right populist Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party (PVV) are now looking to form a government after an unexpectedly large victory in Wednesday’s national vote (22).

“I honestly feel like this is the Trump moment for the Dutch. The things that happened after the election of [Donald] Trump, the sentiments and the changes in politics, could be similar,” Catherine de Vries, professor of political science at Bocconi University in Italy, told CNN .

Wilders and the PVV may have won the most seats (a predicted 37 out of a total of 150), but it is unclear whether they have enough support to form a coalition government.

Although the results showed an overall victory for right-wing parties, Wilders’ anti-Islam, anti-immigration, Ukraine-skeptical, anti-EU manifesto was widely considered to be beyond the reach of the centrist Freedom and Democracy Party. right (VVD) of the outgoing Prime Minister, Mark Rutte.

The most obvious path for Wilders to get into office is a coalition with the VVD, which came third with 24 seats, and the New Social Contract, a conservative Christian party which followed with 20 seats, according to a forecast based on 98% of the votes counted. A joint Labor/Green ticket finished second in the election, with 25 seats.

What this potential coalition government would actually look like is also unclear. It would be very unusual for a party that won the most seats to be excluded from government.

It is possible that Wilders will accept a role that does not put him at the head of the government, although that would presumably mean some serious compromises in his political platform.

Beyond these immediate concerns, there are questions about what Wilders’ victory means for the direction of Dutch and European politics more broadly.

The rise of European populism is not exactly new. Italy currently has its most right-wing government since the end of the Second World War and Slovakia re-elected left-wing populist Robert Fico to office in September.

The European Union (EU) is generally good at containing these types of leaders. In some cases, you can mitigate its impact by offering financial incentives or assistance with domestic policies, such as border control. However, having them in government can also cause problems.

The EU tends to make decisions unanimously, meaning each member state has veto rights. This allows countries to defeat the rest of the bloc on very internal grounds, in some cases blocking the entire EU budget — more than a trillion euros.

Having more than one delinquent in the club also means they can band together. This can happen both in the Council — which is made up of ministers and leaders of national governments — and in the European Parliament, in which right-wing or left-wing parties from different countries form alliances.

The right, in particular, is very good at this and has considerably increased its influence at Brussels level in recent years. This is partly why Wilders’ threats to leave the EU may not actually be Brussels’ biggest headache.

Today’s Eurosceptics generally don’t want to leave the EU — instead, they want to run it. In part, it’s because they like the economic benefits of being in the EU.

And if they continue to increase their political power within the European bloc, they will have many big toys to play with on the world stage. Other Eurosceptic leaders have already congratulated Wilders with quick and obvious joy.

“The winds of change are here! Congratulations to Geert Wilders for winning the Dutch elections,” said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Wednesday night (22).

“It is because there are people who refuse to see the national torch extinguished that hope for change remains alive in Europe,” said French far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

Even if Wilders fails to implement the most radical parts of his manifesto and is restrained by Europe more broadly, concerns remain about what his success does for the rest of European politics. Populist victories tend to drag others further to the right.

The most obvious examples of this are in France, where President Emmanuel Macron imitated anti-Islamic rhetoric to avoid being defeated by Le Pen, and in the United Kingdom, where the center-right Conservative Party is almost unrecognizable after 13 years in power. power and influence of Brexit.

The other concerns are that Wilders will somehow be excluded from government or decide to martyr himself rather than sell himself in office.

In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has not been quite the radical right firebrand that some feared when she took power in 2022, and has been, to some extent, contained by the EU. She is therefore seen as a traitor by others on the right.

It is often those who do not hold office who can be the greatest influence on politics. Nigel Farage, the man who played a major role in turning the British Conservatives to the right and the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, has never been in parliament, let alone in government. He is still threatening to swallow the anti-immigration vote.

At the Conservative Party’s annual conference earlier this year, Farage was hailed as a hero by several delegates, despite being arguably the biggest threat to the party.

It is very difficult to predict what will happen in the coalition talks in the Netherlands, or what the next Dutch government will actually look like. But these results come as a shock to many Europeans and we are truly in new territory.