Analysis: Suggestions to end conflict in Gaza are emerging

As the Gaza war approaches four months, with more than 25,000 Palestinians – civilians and fighters – dead and Israel far from achieving its goal of destroying Hamas, no one appears to have presented a concrete proposal that is satisfactory to both parties. parties to pause the conflict – let alone end it. But there are suggestions, albeit incomplete, from both sides, which show a willingness to talk.

In fact, Qatar – the main intermediary – claims there are “serious discussions” with Israel and Hamas and receives “steady responses” from both sides. These are not “negotiations” yet, says the White House. But with indirect talks underway, it appears there is progress towards what Ofer Shelah, a senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), describes as a “Zopa” – a zone of possible agreement.

On Monday (22), Axios reported that Israel had proposed a two-month truce in exchange for the release of all more than 100 hostages still held in Gaza. Later that day, CNN learned that Mossad chief David Barnea had suggested allowing Hamas leaders to go into exile as part of a broader ceasefire.

On Tuesday (23), the Wall Street Journal said that Hamas was now open to releasing some of the hostages in exchange for a pause in the fighting. And Reuters reported that Israel and Hamas agreed in principle to a month-long truce, during which hostages would be released and Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails would be released.

The sticking point appears to be that Hamas wants a “package deal” that would include a second phase agreement to end the war. But even if Israel agreed to this, it is unlikely that it would feel obliged to keep its word. “I don’t believe that even [o líder do Hamas, Yahya] Sinwar is under the impression that any hostage agreement would effectively end the Israel-Hamas conflict,” Shelah told CNN. “Either they don’t want to make a deal,” he says, or it’s just a stance for domestic consumption.

And exile? For now, at least, that seems nonexistent. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani reportedly told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that it would “never work”. Hamas leaders, as we know, would rather die fighting in Gaza. They know that living abroad would not prevent them from being eliminated by the Mossad. Unlike PLO founder Yasser Arafat, who went from exile in Beirut to exile in Tunis, Gaza is home to Hamas' senior leadership. Furthermore, even Israel doesn't seem very interested in the idea. “Sinwar’s exile is not Israel’s position and was not offered by Israel,” declared a senior Israeli government official.

And as emissaries talk and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas fight, pressure grows on the Israeli government to bring the hostages home.

Over the weekend, protesters camped outside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's home to demand a deal to bring them home. “Right now, someone is being raped in a tunnel,” former hostage Aviva Siegel told the Knesset on Tuesday. On Wednesday, they carried out a day of action, blocking roads. On Thursday, they blocked humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza. It also emerged that Netanyahu had begun blaming Qatar for the slow progress in releasing the hostages – prompting a rebuke from the emirate's Foreign Ministry.

An “all for all” agreement is another option that has been discussed since October 7th. In other words, release all Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons – including those who Israel says have blood on their hands – in exchange for the release of all hostages. But even if such a scenario were on the table, a survey published by the Israel Democracy Institute on Wednesday concluded that more than half of Israelis would be against it.

For now, however, such talk remains debatable, with an Israeli official telling CNN that there is no concrete agreement on the table. Punching Hamas, says former IDF general Israel Ziv, should help. “There is no doubt that there is not a single Israeli who does not want the hostages at home,” he told CNN. “But at the same time, we cannot bet on the future of Israel [deixando o Hamas no controle de Gaza]. And to have both, we need to increase military pressure in order to gain the maximum position in negotiations.”

Ziv estimates that it will take another month for the IDF to crush Hamas brigades in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, where there has been intense fighting; A United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees shelter was hit on Wednesday, killing at least a dozen displaced Palestinians. Any deal Israel seeks to seal, Ziv says, will be more likely to come into force once Operation Khan Younis is complete.

Of course, ending the conflict in Gaza is not just subject to military considerations, hostage families demanding a deal, or even pressure from the United States to calm things down. There is also politics. The latest polls point to a disaster for the career of Israel's longest-serving leader. A recent survey revealed that more than half of all Israelis believe that Netanyahu's war policies come from self-interest. Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff who sits in the war cabinet and whose own son was recently killed in Gaza, says he doesn't believe that is the case, but says destroying Hamas is unrealistic.

With this in mind, this round of war between Israel and Hamas will likely not be the last. “Israel should agree to almost any kind of agreement that brings the hostages home,” says Shelah of the INSS. “Because either way, it won’t be the end of the war.”