The global inflationary crisis has proven to be a decisive factor in elections around the world, favoring opposition candidates.
During the CNN 360° This Friday (25), international analyst Fernanda Magnotta highlighted how this economic scenario could influence the presidential race in the United States.
According to Magnotta, there is a disparity between macroeconomic indicators and ordinary citizens’ perception of the economy. “We have noticed that between what the monitoring curves of the various macroeconomic indices indicate and what arrives at the tip, in the perception of the average citizen, the common man, there is still a gap (space)”, explains the analyst.
Global impact of inflation
The expert emphasizes that this phenomenon is not limited to the United States, but is a global trend.
“The hyperinflationary crisis that had already started with Covid, then worsened with wars, also has to do with decisions that countries took in relation to their public accounts”, says Magnotta.
She cites examples of countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and South Korea, where incumbents faced difficulties due to the economic situation.
In the context of the American elections, this scenario could benefit Donald Trump. The analyst highlights that the former president’s campaign has exploited dissatisfaction with the current government, associating Vice President Kamala Harris with Joe Biden’s unpopularity.
“Trump now has two main commercials on American TV and one of them precisely emphasizes that Kamala is Biden”, he observes.
Perspectives for the American elections
The analyst mentions statistician Nate Silver, an expert on American elections, who recently expressed his intuition that Trump would have a slight advantage.
However, Magnotta highlights that the election is still very disputed: “It means that it [Kamala Harris] Will you lose? No, she could win, but at this moment what we call the variables, the fundamentals, in fact show that there is a slight advantage that could explain a victory for Donald Trump”.
Despite these analyses, Magnotta emphasizes the unpredictability of the election, describing it as a “coin toss”.
“It’s 50-50, it’s not possible, there is no model that gives certainty about what is about to happen, pointing out paths”, concludes the specialist.
This content was originally published in Analysis: Inflationary crisis has given opponents an advantage in elections around the world on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil

Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.