Analysis: Europe is tense about Trump's potential victory; China sees opportunity

China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, had a message for his European counterparts over the weekend: no matter how much the world changes, China will be “consistent and stable” – a “force for stability.”

The statement, made by Wang during statements at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday (17), comes at a time when European leaders are cautiously observing the upcoming elections in the United States – concerned about the potential return of the former President Donald Trump could harm his partnership with Washington.

Those concerns arose last week after Trump said he would not defend NATO allies that do not spend enough on defense — a staggering threat to many in Europe as Russia's invasion of Ukraine advances.

The timing of Trump's comments could not have been better for Wang, who is visiting Europe as Beijing struggles to repair deteriorating relations with the bloc – an effort made more urgent by its domestic economic difficulties and ongoing frictions with the USA.

“No matter how the world changes, China, as a responsible great country, will maintain its core principles and policies consistent and stable, and serve as a firm force for stability in a turbulent world,” Wang said during remarks in Munich at while also calling on China and Europe to “stay away from geopolitical and ideological distractions” and work together.

But while Wang's proposal may reach receptive ears in some European capitals where leaders hope to stabilize aspects of their relations with China, Beijing also has a big problem when it comes to making real progress toward repairing ties, analysts say: its consistent relationship with Moscow.

These challenges were underlined over the weekend in Munich, where the security conference was overshadowed by shock and anger when reports emerged of the death, at age 47, of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny.

Leaders viewed his death as the work of Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime – with the outrage amplifying growing concern over the fate of Ukraine, which lost key ground to Russia on Friday (16).

“Wang's message to his European hosts is that geopolitical differences should not be allowed to get in the way of close cooperation,” said Noah Barkin, a visiting fellow at the US think tank German Marshall Fund (GMF).

“What has not been said is that China is not prepared to change the positions and policies that most concern Europeans, namely the deepening of its relationship with Russia and its distorted trade practices.”

Relations with Russia

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began two years ago, Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have strengthened their countries' relations as both face growing tensions with the West. China – which has not condemned Russia's invasion and claims impartiality in the conflict – has also emerged as a key lifeline for Russia's sanctions-hit economy.

In Europe, this has galvanized concerns about China's own global ambitions and played a role in the European Union's ongoing effort to recalibrate its policy toward China.

At a panel discussion in Munich on Saturday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg drew a parallel between Russian aggression and China, saying continued U.S. support for Ukraine would “send a message” to Xi discouraging the potential use of force in Taiwan, a self-governed island claimed by China's Communist Party.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell reiterated the bloc's “expectation that China will refrain from supporting Russia” in a meeting with Wang on Friday (16). Western governments have not accused Beijing of sending extensive aid to the Russian military.

The EU is considering imposing trade restrictions on three mainland Chinese companies as part of a proposed series of measures aimed at hampering the Russian war effort, Bloomberg reported last week.

In response to a question about the report from CNN China's Foreign Ministry said it “firmly opposes illegal sanctions or 'long-arm jurisdiction' against China under the pretext of China-Russia cooperation” and that “normal exchanges” between Chinese and Russian companies “will not are directed to third parties”.

Wang made an apparent attempt to address concerns about China's ties with Russia over the weekend, framing the relationship for his audience in Munich as part of Beijing's efforts to cooperate with “key countries” to address global challenges.

“Russia is China’s largest neighboring country,” Wang said, repeating the usual statements that their relationship is not an alliance and does not “target third parties.” As such, “a steadily growing China-Russia relationship meets the shared interests of the two countries” and “serves the strategic stability of the Asia-Pacific and the world,” he said.

When asked by conference chairman Christoph Heusgen in a public discussion whether China should do more to control Russia, Wang also responded to what he claimed were attempts to “blame China or shift responsibility for resolving the Ukraine crisis to China.” Beijing has worked “tirelessly” to promote peace talks, he said.

The diplomat reiterated this in a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, on Saturday, stressing that China does not “sell lethal weapons to conflict areas or conflict parties” and that it “would not give up its efforts” to restore peace.

But these efforts fell far short of European hopes that China would use its considerable economic influence and regular high-level communication with Russia, including between Xi and Putin, to end the conflict in a way that respected the territorial integrity of the country. Ukraine.

Instead, an effort by Beijing to frame itself as a potential peacemaker in the conflict, led by Wang at last year's Munich Security Conference, has produced no tangible results.

A plan for a “political solution” to the conflict presented by Beijing at that time was widely criticized as likely to help Moscow consolidate its territorial gains, as it called for a ceasefire without the prior withdrawal of Russian troops.

It is also unclear whether Beijing will participate in the upcoming Ukraine-backed Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. Kuleba raised the issue in his meeting with Wang, according to a post on the Ukrainian diplomat's X account. Beijing did not mention the event.

The “Trump factor”

Observers say that in this context, Wang's apparent attempts to ease European concerns about China's stance on the war may have little impact within the EU.

“As long as the war in Ukraine continues, EU policies towards China will move towards closer alignment with the US. Most likely, the Europeans will join the US in doubling restrictions on the export of critical technologies, given that they consider the Union's economic security to be fundamental,” according to Yu Jie, senior China researcher at the Chatham House think tank in London.

The bloc is considering a series of measures that would help “de-risk” European supply chains from China, secure critical technologies and protect its market from what it considers to be certain artificially cheap Chinese products. Beijing sees European politics as excessively influenced by the United States.

Wang also tried to push back against such measures in Munich, warning that “those who try to exclude China in the name of 'risk reduction' will make a historic mistake.”

The Chinese diplomat met with several European counterparts outside the security conference, before heading to Spain. He is also expected to visit France this week.

Wang may have more success in stabilizing relations with individual EU member states interested in bolstering economic ties – and those looking with uncertainty to the impending US elections, according to observers.

In his European meetings, Wang may “use the 'Trump factor' to highlight that completely siding with the United States is not in the best interests of European countries,” according to Liu Dongshu, assistant professor in the department of public and international affairs at the University of City of Hong Kong.

As president, Trump not only expressed skepticism toward the U.S. alliance system in Europe, but also leveraged tariffs on European steel and aluminum, triggering retaliatory measures on U.S. products from Europe.

“Wang Yi may point out that if Trump becomes president, it will be a problem if (Europe) does not have a good relationship with China. He wants to persuade European countries to be more neutral,” Liu said.

Beijing made some progress in softening relations with European countries last year, including during a visit to China by French President Emmanuel Macron – a development that Wang hopes to build on.

“In national capitals, there will be a greater focus on keeping the relationship with Beijing stable, in part to avoid the risk of a two-front trade conflict with Beijing and Washington should Trump return to the White House,” said GMF’s Barkin, who also is a senior consultant at the Rhodium Group, based in New York.

“(China’s) worst nightmare is a united transatlantic front on trade, technology and security issues. China will use Trump's words to reinforce the message in European capitals that Washington is not a reliable partner,” he said.