Analysis: Chaotic 72 hours show Russia’s lack of preparation for Ukrainian counter-offensive

Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive seems imminent – ​​and how each side is preparing speaks volumes about its preparedness.

Kiev’s front lines are abuzz with vehicle movement and artillery attacks, with regular explosions hitting vital Russian targets in occupied areas.

The defense minister said preparations were “coming to an end” and President Volodymyr Zelensky assured that a counter-offensive “will happen”, although he was hesitant to talk about any exact start date.

It may have already started; it could be weeks away. No one knows – and that fact is a strong measure of Ukraine’s success when it starts.

Moscow, on the other hand, is at the pub-fighting stage of closing its war.

After losing Kharkiv and Kherson, they had at least seven months to prepare the next likely target of the Ukrainian attack: Zaporizhzhia. It did, with vast trench defense networks that can be seen from space.

Recognition of their enormity isn’t necessarily a compliment in 2023. They’re big, yes, but they’re also something anyone can Google. That’s not good in an age of accurate rockets and rapid armored advances.

But it’s the past 72 hours that perhaps most betrayed Russia’s lack of readiness.

First, the apparent resignation of the Deputy Minister of Defense in charge of logistics, Mikhail Mizintsev .

The Russian Ministry of Defense did not explain his dismissal, only issued a decree that Aleksey Kuzmenkov now you have your job.

The “Butcher of Mariupol”, as Mizintsev is known, certainly had enough flaws in Russia’s disastrous war to merit his dismissal. But this does not satisfy the question: because now?

By removing key ministers moments before its army faces Ukraine’s counterattack, Moscow sends a message of mayhem.

And then there’s the new round of criticism from Yevgeny Prigozhin . Wagner’s mercenary warlord chose Sunday to give another lengthy interview in which he laid out the extent of the problems his mercenaries face.

According to Wagner’s boss, his fighters are so low on ammunition that they may have to withdraw from Bakhmut – the strategically unimportant city they wasted thousands of lives trying to take.

One caveat: Prigozhin is not the most credible source and provides little evidence for what he says. But that kind of public discussion is not something Moscow would encourage at this sensitive time.

Russia’s eroding ammunition supplies had long been known, but suggesting an imminent failure just before the counteroffensive smacks of a grand attempt to shift blame.

In short: the hours before Ukraine’s movements are waning. The amount we know about your emotional state, or target, is almost zero. And the extent of Moscow’s internal indecision, rivalries and disunity only grows.

Source: CNN Brasil

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