Analysis: Cardinals prepare for dispute for the future of the Catholic Church

Pope Francis’ death began what many see as a battle for the soul of the church, placing those who want to continue their progressive reforms against a small but powerful group that wants to reversing them.

Francisco has radically reformulated the group that will soon vote in his successor. Only cardinals under 80 are entitled to vote, and he chose most of them.

The first Pontiff of the Global South, Francis decided to “tear” the old and not written rules code that provided for bishops of certain dioceses – most of them in Italy, Europe and the United States – were automatically appointed cardinals.

Instead, the pontiff sought to internationalize the Cardinal College, naming cardinals from a series of countries that had never been represented before, such as Tonga, Mianmar, Mongolia, Central African Republic and Haiti.

His reforms have made the body more representative of the global Catholic community, while the cardinals he has generally selected share his vision of the Church.

All of this makes more likely that cardinals choose a Pope who represents continuity with Francis’ ideas and reforms.

But the conclaves can bring surprises and, despite the implemented reforms, there is a small but determined, minority dissatisfied with the latest papacy, which will seek ways to change the course of the Catholic Church.

Part of the opposition is very financed and pre-contest maneuvers have been dragging on for several years.

These cardinals were concerned about the opening of Francis in giving communion to divorced or married couples again, with the welcome to LGBTQia+ Catholics and the strong criticisms of what the Pope has classified as “late” Catholics who want to take the church back to a different path.

His criticisms of economic inequality and focus on immigrant rights and climate crisis shocked Catholics who wanted a Pope who dictated the rules on moral teachings.


While hospitalized, Francis approved a three -year reform process in the Catholic Church, including how to assign more broad roles to women, including their ordination as deacons, and the greatest inclusion of lay people in governance and decision making.

The reforms were examined through a structure called Bishops Synod, which was the main vehicle by which the Pope implemented his pastoral agenda during his pontificate.

In recent years, he sought to involve Catholics from around the world in the renewal process. The big question is how the next Pope will continue this process, which is expected to last until 2028.

The debate is likely to intensify after Pope Francis’ funeral on Saturday (26), with attention turning to the next conclave – whose start date has not yet been confirmed.

Non-Votant Cardinals can influence election

A group to be carefully observed is cardinals over 80 who, although unable to vote, can play an important role in pre-competition meetings and informal discussions that occur before the election.

Part of these retired cardinals was not named by Francis, and some opposed the direction that the first Latin American Pope tried to lead the church.

The cardinal Blase Cupich from Chicago, and the cardinal Oswald Gracias Archbishop Emeritus of Bombay, could play this role of “kings”, as well as the cardinal Christophe Pierre former papal in the United States, or the cardinal Arthur Roche British authority of the Vatican.

There is also the Honduran Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga which has vast experience, is multilingual and will support a candidate who is in tune with Francisco’s pastoral priorities.

The cardinal MARC ORELLET Canadian prelate, who has directed the Vatican’s office for the appointment of bishops, is also a figure that will probably influence the procedures.

Other important names are from Ghanaian cardinal Peter Turkson which directs the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, and the Cardinal Timothy Dolan from New York.

Already some of the most critical voices come from cardinals emeritus, such as Joseph Zen by Hong Kong, who has been a fierce critic of Francisco and the Vatican’s diplomatic rapprochement with China.

There are also a considerable number of cardinals who may want to follow Francis’ reforms, but with a more predictable pope with less “shock and dread” of the late pontiff.

Criticism of Pope Francis

During the pontificate of Francis, a group of cardinals took the very unusual measure of publicly challenging the Pope by the decision to allow communion to divorced Catholics who married again.

On two occasions, I am published anonymously criticizing Francisco Cardinis.

The first was released under the pseudonym “Demos” and later it was found that it had been written by Australian Cardinal George Pell, which Francis had named the Vatican treasurer. The cardinal died in 2023.

The second, “Demos II,” accused the pontiff of governance autocratically and stated that the neighbor should work for the “recovery and restoration of truths that were slowly obscured or lost among many Christians.”

Attempts to influence the conclave

The next conclave will take place amid the scrutiny of social networks and cardinals will need to ensure that they examine the candidates closely.

A church historian wrote about the possible “catastrophe” of a newborn Pope being forced to resign in an imaginary scenario in which allegations of not having dealt with a complaint of sexual abuse suddenly appear online.

This papal election occurs in an atmosphere where an allegation, if confirmed, can quickly impact an application.

In addition, there are many forces in the church seeking to influence the vote, many of them well -financed, organized and with bonds with the United States.

In December 2024, a website entitled “Cardinian College Report” was released, detailing the position of cardinals in relation to the blessing of same-sex couples, the ordering of diaconis women and the “Vatican-China secret agreements”.

The site is of groups that deeply oppose the pontificate of Francis.

Six years earlier, there was information that a group in the United States was looking for more than $ 1 million to compile dossiers about candidates in an attempt to avoid a repetition of the conclave that elected Francisco.

When members of this group, “The Red Hat Report”, presented the project, portrayed it as an attempt to improve governance and liability within the church.

They evaluated that “perhaps we had not had Pope Francis” if the project existed at the time of his conclave.

For several years before the Pope’s death, opponents to his government argued how to influence the next conclave.

In 2020, two books were published, both entitled “The Next Pope” and written to authors known for being critics of Francis.

One of them was released among his peers by Dolan, the American Cardinal, although church laws that determine that prelates – ecclesiastical authorities – should not publicly discuss possible papal candidates.

A driving force behind some of the pre-contest maneuvers was Pell, which had a formidable contact network and was politically skilled: the Australian prelate would have supported the conservative Hungarian cardinal Péter ERDő as a candidate.

After his conviction for child sexual abuse was annulled by the Australian Supreme Court, Pell returned to Rome and assumed an active role in preparing the next conclave.

However, Pell’s death in January 2023, at the age of 81, left the opposition to Francis without a clear leader.

Divisory lines in the conclave

When the cardinals decide who should be elected Pope, several factors will be taken into consideration.

A possible dividing line may arise in relation to the Pope’s decision to allow same -sex blessings with several Bishops from Africa and Eastern Europe resisting strongly to this measure.

It is not yet certain if African and Eastern European cardinals would vote in a block in a candidate who sympathizes with their opinions on the subject.

The choice of cardinals from very different parts of the world by Francis means that some of the voters do not know each other very well.

Some also do not speak Italian, the official language of the Vatican (although English and Spanish are widely used).

This would give an advantage to any candidate who has known the cardinals well and plays a role in calling or leading them during the pre-contest period.

In 2005, the guidance of the then cardinal Joseph Ratzinger At pre-competition meetings, his linguistic skills, and the homily he preached in a mass before the vote played a key role in his election as Pope Benedict XVI.

Following the pontificate full of Francis, there may be other cardinals who, although supporting the late Pope, want someone who is less a ‘news creator’ and a disruptor. They can choose someone discreet.

However, it seems likely that, who is chosen as a Pope, Catholics around the world expect them to continue with the great reforms that began by Francis and to try to “institutionalize” the changes he has asked in the Catholic Church.

But it does not underestimate the determination of those who seek to find some way to curb Francisco’s project.

This content was originally published in analysis: Cardinals are preparing for dispute for the future of the Catholic Church on the CNN Brazil website.

Source: CNN Brasil

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