Knowing that an American president is speaking so candidly about the possibility of a nuclear “Armageddon,” as Joe Biden did on Thursday, is bone-chilling.
It is also a commentary on the grave uncertainty over how Russian President Vladimir Putin, a self-styled “strong man”, might react to the growing possibility of defeat in Ukraine in a war in which he has preached his political survival.
Biden’s comments, at a fundraiser in New York, could open him to criticism from political opponents that he is speaking inartisticly about nuclear war – and at a political fundraiser of all ages. places. But, paradoxically, they are also somewhat reassuring because they reveal a president keenly aware of the risks of an escalation with the volatile Kremlin leader.
And whether they are intended for public consumption or not, his comments will have the effect of signaling to Putin that any use of nuclear weapons – even a minor battlefield device – can create a cascade of consequences that could lead to global disaster. In other words, Biden may be reaffirming a deterrent measure after Putin warned he was not bluffing about his threat of possibly using a nuclear bomb.
But Biden’s comments also show that, in at least one way, Putin’s nuclear threats worked: they left his opponents unsure how he might behave.
Biden told Democratic donors that the world has reached a dangerous time.
“(For) the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, we have a direct threat of the use (of a) nuclear weapon if, in fact, things continue on the path they are going on,” Biden said.
“We have a guy I know quite well,” Biden said of Putin.
“He’s not kidding when he talks about the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is arguably underperforming significantly.”
US officials are concerned that Putin may consider using a minor tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine in a desperate attempt to change the course of the war. The White House says it has warned the Kremlin that such a decision would be “catastrophic” for Russia, but has not publicly said exactly how they would respond – although there is speculation that NATO could get involved and directly target Russian forces, a scenario that could lead to a dangerous escalation with Moscow.
US officials also said, however, that they have not detected any signs that Russia is moving or preparing any of its tactical nuclear weapons, which could be small enough to hit formations of soldiers or large enough to destroy a city. A US official told Jeremy Diamond of CNN , on Friday (30), that Biden was speaking “frankly” after Putin’s “irresponsible and reckless” rhetoric, but that his comments were not based on any new information about Russia’s nuclear posture. There has also been no change in US nuclear posture, the official said.
Biden’s Burden
Biden’s comments on Thursday underscore the burden he now bears since the first president after the end of the Cold War more than 30 years ago faced the chilling reality that a nuclear war with Moscow is possible. At least once, during the decades-long standoff between the US and the Soviet Union, Armageddon could have been triggered accidentally, historical accounts show. But the only time Washington and Moscow were on the brink of a deliberate nuclear exchange was in the tense 13-day standoff, almost exactly 60 years ago, in October 1962, over Russian plans to deploy nuclear missiles in Cuba. Eventually, after intense messages between Washington and Moscow, Russian leader Nikita Khrushchev backed down.
Presidents are often less cautious during political fundraising events, which are usually not filmed, although a press meeting is allowed for some commentary. So it’s possible that the president’s comments – his most scathing on the nuclear issue since the start of the war in Ukraine – did not take place in a more conventional setting, such as a press conference. And the White House often backs off off-the-cuff presidential comments on foreign policy, especially on how the US would respond if China invaded Taiwan.
But Biden’s musings seem to offer a window into his thinking as he plays out how this crisis ends. He appears to be grappling with the same escalation questions and avoiding a moment of no return that President John Kennedy faced in 1962 in his game of nuclear poker.
“I’m trying to find out what Putin’s way out is,” Biden said. “Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself in a position where he not only loses fame but also significant power within Russia?” Biden said.
The president may be thinking of Kennedy’s commencement speech at the American University in Washington in 1963, in which he reflected on the lessons of the Cuban missile crisis and the risks posed by weapons that could end the world.
“Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avoid confrontations that force an adversary to choose between humiliating withdrawal or nuclear war,” Kennedy said.
“Adopting this kind of course in the nuclear age would only be evidence of the failure of our policy – or of a collective death wish for the world.”
Biden has been scrupulous in trying to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia over Ukraine, although Putin has termed the conflict a confrontation with the West. But the great strategic danger now is that Russian defeats are pushing Putin into exactly that corner that Kennedy warned against, where the Russian president may face a choice between humiliation or the use of a nuclear weapon.
No exit ramps
The situation is complicated by the fact that there is no prospect of a diplomatic process to end the war. Ukraine is in no mood to speak up after suffering an unprovoked invasion that caused human carnage, especially as it now appears to have Russian troops on the run. Putin cannot allow any outcome to the war that looks like anything other than total victory, although his control over the Russian media may allow him to turn defeat into victory.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken addressed the lack of diplomatic outlets during a visit to Peru on Thursday (7).
“The fact is that President Putin and Russia have shown absolutely no interest in any kind of meaningful diplomacy. And unless and until they do, it’s very difficult to pursue him,” Blinken said.
“We said all the time, the president [Volodymyr] Zelensky said all along that this will be resolved through diplomacy. And if when Russia shows that it has any seriousness of purpose in engaging in such diplomacy, we will be ready, we will be there. But all the signs at this point, unfortunately, point in the opposite direction.”
The longer the war continues, and the greater the success of Ukraine’s forces, the more worried Putin will be about using his nuclear arsenal to try to change the equation. While some strategists think he is bluffing or that there are no real strategic advantages to breaking the nuclear taboo – an act that would leave Russia even more ostracized in the world – there is real concern in Western governments about Putin’s state of mind. All of his previous assumptions and tactical decisions in Ukraine have backfired and fail to show the kind of strategic caution and clear thinking that is critical when it comes to whether or not to use nuclear weapons.
With that in mind, Biden appeared to be arguing, which Putin will now surely hear, that the idea that the use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine could be contained and not lead to a wider conflagration is wrong.
The whole strategic logic between keeping nuclear weapons for self-defense is that they are too terrible to use, and any nation that did so would be writing its own death sentence.
The president has now sent a clear signal to the Russian leader that crossing the nuclear threshold in any way could cause an escalation that would lead to a disastrous all-out nuclear war.
“I don’t think there’s the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuke and not end up in Armageddon,” Biden said at the fundraiser.
His comments underscore the most important mission of his presidency – guiding the world through the most dangerous nuclear attack in 60 years.
Source: CNN Brasil
I’m James Harper, a highly experienced and accomplished news writer for World Stock Market. I have been writing in the Politics section of the website for over five years, providing readers with up-to-date and insightful information about current events in politics. My work is widely read and respected by many industry professionals as well as laymen.
