Almost half of Brazilian adults (48%) will be obese and more 27% will be overweight by 2044 as warned by a new study presented at the International Congress on Obesity (ICO) 2024. The event, organized by the World Obesity Federation, is one of the main congresses on the subject in the world and takes place in São Paulo from June 26th to 29th.
According to study estimates, three-quarters of Brazilian adults will be obese or overweight within 20 years. The authors also estimate that, if current trends continue, 130 million Brazilians will be overweight.
The work was carried out by Eduardo Nilson, researcher at Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), and colleagues. The authors used a life table model to estimate the impacts of overweight and obesity on 11 diseases associated with high Body Mass Index (BMI) in Brazil until 2044, assuming that current trends are maintained.
The model estimates attributed deaths and incident cases of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis and cancers based on demographic and epidemiological data from national surveys and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study.
According to estimates, the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Brazilian adults will increase from 57% in 2023 to 75% in 2024. Consequently, it is estimated that 10.9 million new cases of chronic diseases associated with overweight and obesity will develop in the next 20 years, and 1, 2 million deaths attributable to overweight and obesity during this period.
Although the distribution of new cases between men and women does not differ significantly, the study estimates that 64% of obesity-related deaths are expected to occur among men by 2044. In this scenario, diabetes represented more than 51% of new cases, and Cardiovascular diseases attributable to excess weight accounted for approximately 57% of deaths by 2044.
“Based on current trends, the epidemiological and economic burden of overweight and obesity in Brazil will increase significantly, therefore robust policies need to be implemented in the country, including the treatment of existing cases and the prevention of overweight and obesity in all age groups. ”, comment the authors of the study.
“These data are alarming and make it clear that we need to focus on prevention policies and move away from the ‘convenient’ discourse that obesity is a matter of habits and choices”, says Bruno Halpem, president of the Brazilian Association for the Study of Obesity and Syndrome Metabolic (Abeso).
“If we do not unify efforts, with government and civil society, we will be, year after year, congress after congress, just publishing new frightening data. Fortunately, Latin America is at the forefront of this discussion and we can learn a lot from the experiences of other countries in the region”, he adds.
Women, black people and other people of color will be hit hardest
The study showed that overweight and obesity in adults in Brazil are increasing rapidly over time. The prevalence of obesity almost doubled from 2006 to 2019, reaching 20.3% of the adult population. By 2030, it is estimated that 68.1% of adults will be overweight and obese, with women, black people and other minority ethnicities showing a higher prevalence of the disease .
For women, the obesity estimate for 2030 is 30.2%, and overweight, 37.7%. For men, the estimate is 28.8% and 39.7% for obesity and overweight, respectively. For the same year, the estimate for obesity in white people is 27.6%, and for overweight, 38.8%. For black and other non-white ethnicities combined it is 31.1% for obesity and 38.2% for overweight.
The study also points to disparities related to education. For those with a high level of education, the estimate for obesity is 26.2%, while for people with a low level of education it is 35.4%.
Obesity in boys and girls of all ages is also expected to increase
The research also shows that, if current trends continue, obesity rates will also increase in boys and girls of all ages over the next 20 years. The forecast is that the disease will affect 24% of children between 5 and 9 years old, 15% of those between 10 and 14 years old, and 12% among adolescents and young adults between 15 and 19 years old.
The study authors estimate that the prevalence of obesity in boys aged 5 to 9 will increase from 22.1% to 28.6% between 2023 and 2044. For girls in this age group, the projection is that it will increase by 13.6% to 18.5%.
Over the same 20-year period, the percentage of boys aged 10 to 14 living with obesity will increase from 7.9% to 17.6%, while the percentage of girls with obesity in the same age group will increase from 7.9% to 11 .6%. Finally, the prevalence of obesity among boys aged 15 to 19 will increase from 8.6% to 12.4%, while the prevalence among girls will increase from 7.6% to 11.0%.
“The results of the study support the urgent need for public policies to prevent and treat overweight and obesity in the Unified Health System (SUS) and demonstrate the likely epidemiological impacts of childhood obesity in Brazil if appropriate measures are not taken. In addition to these other approaches within the scope of the SUS, to effectively resolve this issue, it is essential to implement fiscal and regulatory policies that promote healthier food environments, especially for children and adolescents”, comment the study authors.
Source: CNN Brasil
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