A new study shows that, by 2050, more than three-quarters of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time. By 2100, this number will increase to 97% of countries . The estimates were published this Wednesday (20), in the renowned scientific journal The Lancet.
On the other hand, low-income countries, mainly in western and eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, will have high fertility rates, which should continue to drive population growth in these places throughout the century. According to the study, this demographic division in the world could have enormous consequences for economies and societies .
The research presents estimates from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factors (GBD) Study, a global survey led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. These estimates show now and future regional, national, and global trends in fertility and living natives.
In general, countries need to have a total fertility rate (TFT) of 2.1 children per person to sustain long-term generational replacement of the population. The TFR of a population is obtained through the average number of children born to a woman throughout her life.
According to the study, the number of countries and territories with an unsustainable total fertility rate for population replacement will reach 198, representing 97% of the world's nations and territories . This means that in these places, populations will decline unless low fertility is compensated by effective immigration or policies that offer greater support to parents.
For the study authors, these new forecasts reinforce the challenges to economic growth in middle- and high-income countries, with a shrinking workforce and an increasing burden on health and social security systems from an aging population.
Demographic contrast with low-income countries
The new study also predicts major shifts in the global pattern of live births from higher-income countries to low-income countries. In 2021, 29% of the world's babies were born in Sub-Saharan Africa . According to the analysis, the estimate is that this number will increase to more than half (54%) of all babies, highlighting the need for improvements in access to contraceptive methods and female education in these countries.
“We are facing surprising social changes throughout the 21st century,” says the study’s senior author, IHME professor Stein Emil Vollset. “The world will simultaneously face a 'baby boom' in some countries and a 'baby bust' in others”, he adds.
“While most of the world faces serious challenges to economic growth amid a shrinking workforce and how to care for and pay for aging populations, many of the most resource-limited countries in sub-Saharan Africa will be grappling with how to support their populations. youngest and fastest-growing healthcare system on the planet in some of the most politically and economically unstable healthcare systems,” analyzes Vollset.
For Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, co-author of the study and principal research scientist at IHME, these future trends in fertility rates and live births “will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will require reorganizing societies.”
Falling fertility around the world
Also according to the study, the global total fertility rate has more than halved in the last 70 years . In 1950, this rate was about five children for each woman. In 2021, it rose to 2.2 children per woman. The trend is particularly worrying in South Korea and Serbia, where the rate is less than 1.1 children.
In sub-Saharan Africa, fertility rates remain high , with four children per woman in 2021, almost double the global average. In Chad, the total fertility rate is the highest in the world, with seven births per woman.
The analysis also predicts global fertility will decline further , reaching a total fertility rate of about 1.8 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100. By then, only six of the 204 countries and territories (Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan) are expected to have fertility rates fertility greater than 2.1 births per woman. In 13 countries, including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Saudi Arabia, rates are predicted to fall to less than one child per woman.
To add, most of the world is transitioning to a natural population decline (when the number of deaths exceeds the number of live births): the forecast is that only 26 countries will continue to record population growth in 2100, with the number of newborns exceeding the number of deaths, including Angola, Zambia and Uganda.
“In many ways, the drop in fertility rates is a success story, reflecting not only better and more readily available contraception, but also many women choosing to delay or have fewer children, as well as more opportunities for education and employment.” , analyzes Vollset.
The analysis suggests that efforts are needed to accelerate access to modern contraceptives and female education to help accelerate fertility decline and reduce birth rates in countries with higher fertility.
Furthermore, the study also examined the impact that pro-natal policies to provide financial support and care to children and families could have on increasing fertility rates in countries with low fertility levels. Based on existing data from countries that have already implemented these policies, the results suggest that these measures could prevent some nations from experiencing extremely low declines in fertility rates.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
